Projected Rookie Of The Year
Cody Zeller
The ROY race will be very close. The reason that I picked Zeller over the other favorites, Burke, Oladipo, & McLemore is that he has little competition for minutes(unlike Oladipo), is mature enough to handle the pressure (McLemore seemed overwhelmed by the pre-draft press/expectations), and is NBA ready (Burke will have more major adjustments both athletically & game-wise than Zeller).
This is not a lock, of course. A lot can happen between now and the end of the season, but Zeller fits well with the Bobcats and has the game to maximize his rookie impact. With the additions of Big Al and Zeller, the Bobcats have a much better front court this season. Zeller is the future and offers the Bobcats a perfect stretch-4 compliment to Big Al. Zeller should get all the minutes that he can handle, around 28-30 per game. I expect Biyombo to be relegated to a bench role, but still play his normal statistically underwhelming ~25 minutes per game. McRoberts has some game, but is becoming a NBA journeymen's journeyman. As long as Zeller plays consistently, McBob should not eat into his minutes.
The only dark-horse players who may push Zeller are Anthony Bennett and Kelly Olynyk. Unless the Cavs are decimated by injuries, Bennett will likely not have enough consistent PT to win the ROY race. However, if Bennett finds himself starting at SF and averaging 28-30 minutes per game, he has the offensive talent to put up big numbers.
Olynyk is a real threat. The Celtics don't have a true center on their roster who has started an NBA game. Actually, Vitor Faverani is the only other C on the Celtics roster. If Olynyk has a good camp, it's likely that he can win the starting C job from game 1. In this case, he has a real shot at ROY b/c of his polished offensive game. However, defense and rebounding will be problematic for Olynyk. New head coach Brad Steven will have options to use better defenders/rebounders, veteran PFs Bass & Hump to take minutes from KO. This is why I expect his average per minutes to be limited to around 25.
All Rookie - First Team
Top players who have clear paths to minutes and production. They also have the top tier talent to thrive as rookies.Trey Burke - Starter in Utah, but will struggle a bit.
Victor Oladipo - Dominated summer league, but where will
the Magic find major minutes for the #2 pick.
Kelly Olynyk - Was I so wrong about Dirk Olynyk? Should
start at C for 40+ games this season.
Ben McLemore - McLemore is the future of the Kings and
has little competition for minutes. He seems
very young though.
Anthony Bennett - The Cavs overstuffed their front court, but
most of the players are injury prone. I
expect Bennett to carve out steady rotational
minutes at both SF & PF. Perhaps starting at
SF by mid-season.
All Rookie - Second Team
These players are talented, but lack the starting job/big minute roles to slide into. However, each should get better and acquire more playing time as the season progresses. Depending on injuries and opportunities, one or more of these players could move up to the All Rookie Team.MCW - Picture Rondo without a jump shot. His
over/under for FG%, is 37%, but will
leads all rookies in assists.. and TOs.
Archie Goodwin - Great summer league. Suns starting
SG job is up for grabs.
Otto Porter - Should start at some point, but may lack
the stats to make the first team.
K. Caldwell-Pope - The Pistons guard rotation is still a bit
murky, but I expect KCP to distance himself
from the competition fairly quickly.
CJ McCollum - With a crowded back court major minutes
will be hard to come by. He was one of the
better offensive players in the draft and
should still produce in a 6th man role this
season.
All Dark Horse Team
These were later picks who lack the immediate minutes and roles. However, each should get better and acquire more playing time as the season progresses.Tim Hardaway, Jr. - Knicks rookies always seem to have impact.
May get some early PT with Smith out and
Shump playing poorly.
Dennis Schröder - Stuck behind Teague for 4 years.
Boooo! Still, Atlanta will find minutes for
"Umlaut Rondo".
Rudy Gobert - Played well in the summer league. Gobert has
no competition for backup minutes at both
PF & C.
Reggie Bullock - Great summer league. Classic 3&D guy. A
great three ball shooter who Doc Rivers
will work into the rotation b/c of his D
and the floor spacing his shooting should
provide.
Steven Adams - Very raw, but played well in summer league.
By the end of training camp, he may be the
best C on the OKC roster. That's not saying
much!
Nemanja Nedovic - Now that Jarrett Jack is playing in Cleveland
the Warrior have a minutes at the combo-guard
position. Nedovic has game. Seems like a
good fit.
All Chandler Parson Team
Second round picks and rookie free agents who have a chance to make a splash by carving out rotational minutes as rookies. They may rack up early DNPs, but may slowly build rolls by mid-March.Ray McCallum, Jr. - Opened some eyes in the summer league.
Glen Rice, Jr. - Lottery talent, but fell b/c of off court
issues. Solid summer league, but there's
a lot of competition at SG/SF on the Wizards.
Jeff Withey - Not a great summer league, but great college
shot blocker. Should work into a bench role
by mid-to-late in the season.
Phil Pressey - Undrafted rookie who will get some run
while Rondo is out. He's too short to be a
full time NBA start, but has the skills to be
a very good backup.
Ian Clark - Another undrafted rookie on a team in full
tank mode. At 6'3", he's a bit undersized,
but may push Burk for minutes at SG. He can
also play PG.
Alex Len - Bad sign, typed "Alex Len" into Google &
"alex len injury history" came up first.
Nerlens Noel - Undersized & 2 bad knee injuries.
Shabazz Muhammad - Poor summer league and off-the-court
problems to boot. Will spend some time in
the DLeague.
Shane Larkin - Broken ankle is a bad way to start off
an NBA career, especially for an undersized
PG.
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Giannis, welcome to the end of the bench.
Lucas Nogueira - Athletic 7 footer who can rebound
and block shots. He is spending the
year playing in Spain.
Sergey Karasev - Too many player on Cleveland to get
much run on a team in "playoffs or bust"
mode.
Livio Jean-Charles - In R. C. Buford we trust. Livio will
probably end up the best player in
the entire draft.
Solomon Hill - Impressive skill set and summer league, but too much competition at SF on
the Pacers for him to make much of an
impact as a rookie.
Gorgui Dieng - Bad summer league. Under size & limited game.
Mason Plumlee - Championships aren't built on 23 y/o rookies.
Tony Snell - Summer league FG% 37, 3PT%: 18... yikes!
André Roberson - André, meet the Tulsa 66ers... get comfortable.
but may push Burk for minutes at SG. He can
also play PG.
All 'Uh Oh' Team
In such a flat draft and having so many questions lingering on some of the top players, a few of these guys will undoubtedly flop. These are your primary candidates.Alex Len - Bad sign, typed "Alex Len" into Google &
"alex len injury history" came up first.
Nerlens Noel - Undersized & 2 bad knee injuries.
Shabazz Muhammad - Poor summer league and off-the-court
problems to boot. Will spend some time in
the DLeague.
Shane Larkin - Broken ankle is a bad way to start off
an NBA career, especially for an undersized
PG.
All "Wait Until Next Year Or The Year After" Team
Talented euro stashes, DLeaguers, and raw prospects. These players will make their impact on the NBA, but it wont be this season.Giannis Antetokounmpo - Giannis, welcome to the end of the bench.
Lucas Nogueira - Athletic 7 footer who can rebound
and block shots. He is spending the
year playing in Spain.
Sergey Karasev - Too many player on Cleveland to get
much run on a team in "playoffs or bust"
mode.
Livio Jean-Charles - In R. C. Buford we trust. Livio will
probably end up the best player in
the entire draft.
Solomon Hill - Impressive skill set and summer league, but too much competition at SF on
the Pacers for him to make much of an
impact as a rookie.
All Uninspiring Team
Players who lack the size, game, PT as rookies, and at best will become role players in the league. Yawn.Gorgui Dieng - Bad summer league. Under size & limited game.
Mason Plumlee - Championships aren't built on 23 y/o rookies.
Tony Snell - Summer league FG% 37, 3PT%: 18... yikes!
André Roberson - André, meet the Tulsa 66ers... get comfortable.
2014 Draft Class
After spending six months analyzing and re-analyzing both the 2012 & 2013 drafts, it's easy to see why everyone LOVES the 2014 draft. I count 8 "franchise altering" players so far. By "franchise altering", I mean players who project to be from perennial All Stars to HOFer types, e.g. from Andre Iguodala, Deron Williams, Paul Pierce, Carmelo Anthony, to LJB.
Of course, there may be a Greg Oden or a player who "Marcus Smart"'s to the 2015 draft. There may also be some super risers and Nike Hoop Summit stars who work their way into the top 10. A lot will happen between today and next June. The one thing that you can count on is endless updates and thoughts from myself on the subject!
As a first go, let's breaks down the projected lottery picks by category and map them to a current or past NBA player for comparison. I am not sure how accurate the player comps are, but I will refine these as the year goes on.
Without further adieu,
HOF Potential
1 Andrew Wiggins SF Paul George+ to LeBron James-
2 Julius Randle PF LaMarcus Aldridge
3 Jabari Parker SF/PF Carmelo Anthony
Perennial All Stars
4 Marcus Smart PG Deron Williams
5 Dante Exum PG Penny Hardaway
6 Joel Embiid C Hakeem Abdul Olajuwon
7 Aaron Gordon PF Blake Griffin
8 Andrew Harrison PG/SG Dion Waiters
Borderline All Stars
9 Glenn Robinson III SF Andre Iguodala
10 Wayne Selden SG Dwyane Wade-lite
11 Montrezl Harrell PF Kenneth Faried
12 Willie Cauley-Stein C Joakim Noah
13 Mario Hezonja SF Danillo Gallinari
14 Mitch McGary PF Bill Laimbeer
Once the college basketball season kicks off and the top young freshman start playing, we'll be able to separate the true elite talent from the pretenders and the Oladipos from the Shabazz's. Needless to say, I can't wait.
