2013 NBA Draft Preview - Who's Stock Is Up? Who's Stock Is Down?

Even though the 2013 NBA draft is still 2 months away, most teams are already deep in their player evaluations. Private workouts may elevate or depress a players draft stock. Below is a list of players on the rise and drop. Plus, a couple of dark horse risers. These list show which player currently have momentum up or down the draft board.

On The Rise

Giannis Adetokoubo The 18 year old Greek phenom is no longer a secret. He is 6' 10" and listed as a point guard, but will more likely play small forward in the NBA. The only thing holding Adetokoubo from being a top 10 pick (currently #11 on nbadraft.net) is that he missed last month's Nike Hoop Summit because of passport issues. Regardless, he is young, skilled, and oozes potential, three things that NBA GMs love. He won't last very long on draft day.

Final Draft Estimate: #8 - Missing the Nike Hoop Summit may have cost him a top 5 spot. I expect many GMs to throw smoke screens about Adetokoubo to keep his value from rising too far.

Good Team Match: New Orleans - The Pelicans need a swing forward and can wait for Giannis to develop. Plus, a Davis, Adetokoubo, Vasquez core may be special.

CJ McCollum - McCollum was a highly rated player coming into the 2012/13 NCAA Men's Basketball season. After fracturing his foot in early January, he left the collective consciousness of the NBA draft evaluators, at least from the minds of the online mock draft experts. On some draft boards, his stock fell into the late teens/early 20s. 

The times have changed. He is healthy again and back on the NBA radar and his stock has recovered. He is currently listed at #13 on nbadraft.net. He is a plus-scorer, but unfortunately labeled as a combo-guard because of his lack of height. The 'combo-guard' label may keep him out of the top 10, but he is one of the better offensive players in the draft. If during one of his private team workouts, he can channel his inner Stephen Curry then he could go anywhere from 5-10.

Final Draft Estimate: #9 - McCollumis older and more experienced than many of the players in the top 10. A team needing a sure thing at SG, but is not picking high enough to select Ben McLemore, may snap up McCollum.

Good Team Match: Detroit Pistons - The Pistons need a good scoring SG for the soon-to-be post Stuckey era.
 
Dennis Schroeder  - Everything is lining up for Schroeder to make a huge leap up the draft board. First, he dazzled at the Nike Hoop Summit. (via Hoops World) Secondly, the top point guard on the board, Marcus Smart, opted to stay in school for another year. Schroeder is currently listed at #23 on nbadraft.net. He's a bit skinny, but is only 19 years old. With a couple of strong workouts, he should be able to hit the backend of the lottery.

Final Draft Estimate: #11 - Teams may end up choosing between Schroeder & Michael Carter Williams.

Good Team Match: Sacramento - The new owners of the Kings will likely make big changes. I love Thomas, but the Kings could use a starting quality point guard.

Sergey Karasev - Karasev is another player who cemented his first round pick status as the Nike Hoop Summit, (via City League Hoops). He is a plus shooter and has decent size. Given that the NBA game revolves more and more around the 3 point shot, that alone should catapult Karasev from #24 (currently on nbadraft.net) to early/mid teens.

Final Draft Estimate: #15 -I don't think he'll go much higher. He has the normal Euro-issues; not ready to play NBA defense and not physically strong enough. Plus at 6' 7", he's about 2 inches short of ideal SF height.

Good Team Match: Philadelphia - The 76ers are a mess, but are normally very good talent evaluators. They have a big need of someone that can shoot the 3 ball. Jason Richardson is injured and old. NickYoung and Wright are free agents. Thad Young and Turner don't shoot the 3 well.

***Updated 05/04/13*****

Dario Saric - It seems that I missed the boat on Saric. I will chalk this wiff up to not enough coffee. For a great read, check out Chad Ford's insider article on Saric.

Final Draft Estimate: #6 - He's already listed at #16 on nbadraft.net. If the GMs quoted in Ford's article are accurate then Saric should easily end up in the top 10.

Good Team Match: New Orleans - The Pelicans seem to be set at all positions except sf. Saric seems like a good fit.

Heading In The Wrong Direction

Shabazz Muhammad - Shabazz's draft stock is falling like a rock. The former potential #1 overall pick missed a few games at the beginning of his freshman year because of eligibility issues. Once he was on the court, his play was just solid. To cap things off, his father lied about his age. If you haven't heard, he's 20, not 19. I don't really understand what the big deal is. He has a semi-full year of college ball to judge him by. I personally don't think that a year in age should effect his stock, but then again, I am not a NBA GM.

The piling-on continues. He's now labeled as; not a great athlete, a volume shooter, a tweener, and doesn't make anyone else on his team better. He's still listed at #9 on nbadraft.net, but is one bad workout from falling to the late teens.

Final Draft Estimate: #19 - Every year a player or two slip out of the lottery to the end of the first round. Last year it was Sullinger and Perry Jones III. This season, Shabazz is heading in that direction. Given the weakness/flatness of the draft, I don't expect him to fall much beyond the late teens or early 20s.

Good Team Match: Chicago - If anyone can get Shabazz to play NBA D, it's Thibodeau. Plus, if Shabazz is really #1 overall talent, he'll make a great match with Rose.

Cody Zeller - Zeller was thought to be a top 5 pick in last year's draft. He may still go top 10 in this years draft. However, Zeller lacks the upside of some of the other young players in the draft. Most GMs try to hit home runs with top 10 picks. Zeller is more of a ground-rule double.

Final Draft Estimate: #12 - He won't fall to far, but he will be overtaken by a few draft board risers.

Good Team Match: OKC - The Thunder could use the help up front and Zeller may be solid enough to be the 2nd or 3d big off the bench.

Gorgui Dieng  - Dieng had a very good run during the NCAA tournament. His stock pop'd a little. However, after the glow of March Madness faded, reality set back in. He's a little to small to play center and not skilled enough to play power forward.

Final Draft Estimate: #30 - I expect he'll be passed up by teams selecting higher upside players.

Good Team Match: Spurs - If he has a NBA level game, coach Pop and the Spurs will be able to develop it.
  
***Updated 05/06/13*****

Alex Len - Len broke his foot and will be out 4-6 months per HoopsWorld. This is really bad timing for Len. ACL injuries are one thing, but broken/fractured foot bones for 7 footers are another. Just ask Yao Ming.

Final Draft Estimate: #15 - I expect a semi-Sullinger fall.

Good Team Match: Utah - The Jazz already have a good young core of bigs, so Len won't be under a lot of pressure as a rookie. The front office is a patient bunch and won't rush Len back before his foot is ready.

Dark Horses Risers

Livio Jean-Charles - Nike Hoop Submit MVP. He has great size and scoring ability. Currently listed at #40 on nbadraft.net.

Final Draft Estimate: #31 - High second round pick on a high potential player.

Good Team Match: Bobcats - The Cats need shooting and Jean-Charles meets the criteria.


Mouhammadou Jaiteh - He played well at the Nike Hoop Submit. He is currently list at #49 on nbadraft.net. He is the second youngest player currently declared for the 2013 NBA Draft. At 6' 11'', 250lbs, and a solid frame, he looks like an NBA center. If he can dunk over a chair, who knows how high he will go!

Final Draft Estimate: #25 - A solid developmental pick for a playoff team.

Good Team Match: Pacers - Any good player development organization would be fine.

Norvel Pelle - Pelle is not currently listed on nbadraft.net, but was the top rated high school center in 2011. There's not much data on Pelle, so private team workouts will mean everything for him. As long as he still has game, I expect a GM to use a #2 on him.

Final Draft Estimate: #60 - Just getting drafted would be a huge move for Pelle.

Good Team Match: Spurs, Pacers, or Celtics - Any good player development organization would be fine.

Dark Horse Droppers

Ben McLemore 

Yep, I mentioned him earlier in reference to McCollum's draft position. I expect McLemore to be taken in the top 5. However, ever since he was mentioned as a potential #1 over pick, he has failed to live up to the billing. Fair or unfair, his game has shrank under the weight of heightened expectations. He;s a couple of mediocre to bad workouts away from falling to the end of the lottery. This may not be a bad thing since expectations on him will be much less.

Final Draft Estimate: #9 - His slide would stop as soon as he hit the Pistons.

Good Team Match: Pistons - For the same reasons as McCollum. The Pistons need a good scoring SG for the soon-to-be post Stuckey era.