Initial Thoughts On The NBA Playoffs

• Miami’s 27 game winning streak ended about 3 weeks ago. Since then, LBJ, Wade, and Bosh have been on an extended Spring Break. I expect it will take a game or two for the Heat to get back into the zone. The Bucks stealing game 1 or 2 in Miami, may be the best thing for the Heat.

• It takes 16 playoff wins to capture the NBA title. I would be surprised if the Heat’s final record is any worse than 16-5. My official guess is 16-3.

• Both the Knicks and Celtics are good defensive teams. IMO, this series will be decided late in the 3d and 4^th quarters of each game when scoring is most difficult. During these times, especially in the last 5 minutes of the game, the Celtics won’t be able to match the Knicks offensively. Both Carmelo and J.R. Smith can create their own shots and can score from anywhere on the floor. The only Celtics that fit the same description are Paul Pierce and Jason Terry. The Knicks defense will key on Paul, making it very difficult on him to consistently score. I only listed Jason Terry here because he has a history of being able to carry team offense. However, he has not shown this ability during his brief tenure with the Celtics. Knicks in 5… sigh.

• Three of the past four years, the Spurs have made a quick exit from the playoffs. Last year was the exception, not the rule. They are built for the regular season.  Lakers in 6.

•  The Lakers are primed for a deep playoff run…. seriously. OKC, Memphis, and the Clippers are all on the other side of the bracket. Denver or Golden State are a much easier second round matchup.

•  I believe a good way to figure out which team will win a given series, is by taking the team with the best player. Picking the “best player” is subjective and may be effected by injuries. However, in most cases the “best player” is obvious. Let’s see if my theory holds water.

     Matchup            Best Player    Pick      Win/Loss
     Heat vs. Buck      LBJ            Heat
     Nets vs. Bulls     Deron William  Nets
     Pacers vs. Hawks   Paul George    Pacers
     Knicks vs. Celtics Carmelo        Knicks
     OKC vs. Rockets    KD             OKC
     Clips vs.Griz      CP3            Clippers
     Nuggets vs. GS     Stephen Curry  GS
     Spurs vs Lakers    Howard         Lakers