It's Over Because It's Over

The Celtics championship run which started during the 2007 draft when the Cs traded the #5 pick (Jeff Green) + (Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and a 2008 2nd round draft pick) to the Seattle SuperSonics for Ray Allen and Glen Davis, effectively ended last summer when Ray signed with the Heat. It’s very fitting that Ray provided the bookends to the latest Celtics dynasty. He was the most under appreciated of the “Big Three”. Paul Pierce was the heart and Kevin Garnett was the backbone. Ray was the… well it’s difficult to define, but something changed when he left the team. Like many fans, I deluded myself into thinking that Ray could be replaced by some combo of Avery Bradley, Jason Terry, and Courtney Lee. It quickly became clear that none of these replacements could provide what Ray did. Even without Ray, there was still hope that fans could cling to. The Celtics would recover from their slow start, start playing Celtics basketball again, and make another deep run. However, when Rondo tore his ACL, everything changed.

I expect Rondo to make a return from the injury quicker than most. However, even if he plays 82 games next season, it won’t be at the same level. Although a player may return from an ACL tear in 6-9 months, it normally takes 18-24 months for a player to regain his previous form. There are exceptions, but not many.  If you compound Rondo's ACL injury with both Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett being a year older, contending for a title next season isn’t realistic. I believe Ainge realizes this to.

For the past 3 seasons, there have been trade deadline rumors that Ainge was trying to break up the Pierce, Garnett, and Allen combo. This year was no exception, although with just Pierce and KG. What is really telling is that the only move Ainge made was to acquire another young combo guard in Jordan Crawford for a reserve center (Jason Collins). The current Celtics roster is stacked with combo guards. Why did he trade Collins for guard when the real team need was more big men, not less? The Celtics also chose not to sign veteran big men Chris Andersen nor Kenyon Martin. Instead signing three NBA washouts, who were playing ball in the China Basketball Association (CBA).  I believe the reason is that Danny Ainge also considers the current title run over. He added these 4 players for Spring tryouts, not to help with the 2013 playoffs.

Maybe I am reading too much into the tea leaves, but I don’t think so. I expect major changes to the team this off season. It’s difficult to say how Ainge will approach these changes. I assume that he’ll first try to reload by acquiring a second under 30 player to pair with Rondo. Perhaps work some sort of sign & trade deal for Josh Smith (like the deadline rumor) or another young star player of the same caliber. The free agent crop is thin this offseason and there will be a lot of competition for Smith, CP3, and Howard. More likely, the Celtics will make deals to put themselves into an advantageous position for the historic 2014 draft and offseason. I am not saying that the Cs will tank next season, but if Pierce and KG are wearing different uniforms next season and Rondo takes his timing coming back from the ACL injury (post 2014 All Star break time frame), I will not be surprised.