The 2013 NBA Draft Is A Mess And You Can Blame Marcus Smart

The 2013 NBA draft has been called weak, flat, lacking definition, and lacking a franchise player. The reality is that this is a below average draft from 1-5 and an average draft after that. The reasons for the weakness at the top are pretty clear:

1. There was no consensus top pick going into this year. This left the NBA pundits and GMs without someone to latch onto. This is not uncommon, but it did start a negative trend towards the draft.

2. This has been an unprecedented year for serious injuries to top players. Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, and Anthony Bennett have all suffered terrible injuries at the time when NBA GMs are building their players evaluations.

3. No one has stepped up to take the top spot. In fact since the NCAA tournament started, no top player has even played all that well except for Trey Burke. Each of the players who were considered cream of the draft crop, failed to live up to that billing.

• Noel was playing ok, but then tore his ACL.
• Shabazz had a season long implosion. First he was rules ineligible by the NCAA and missed a few games. When he finally did play, he was underwhelming. Finally, his father outed him as 20 y/o.
• After deciding to stay in school another season, Cody Zeller didn't play up to heightened and unrealistic expectations. Consequently, he was picked apart by analysts.
• McLemore shrunk under the weight of being the consensus top pick.
• Noel again started to gain some #1 momentum until he weighed in at a super skinny 206lbs at the NBA Combine.

4. Marcus Smart inexplicably decided to stay in school for another year. It's my contention that he would have been this year's Kyrie Irving. Within a month of the actual draft, he would have assumed the #1 pick status. He played very well this season and didn't do anything to hurt his status during the tournament.

Cleveland of course would not select him #1, but could have likely traded him/the #1 pick to Orlando, Sacramento, Detroit, or maybe even New Orleans. It's clear that the Orlando Magic REALLY wanted Marcus Smart. They also have the assets to make the best deal with Cleveland.

 Marcus Smart's decision to stay in school is a classic and very rare lose-lose-lose scenario.

Loss 1: Cleveland loses a lot of trade value on their #1 overall pick. Without a consensus #1, it's unlikely that any other team would pay a premium to move up to #1.

Loss 2: Orlando lose out on their point guard of the future. The Magic are stocked with talented young players at every position except for point guard. Unless they decide to take Burk #2 overall, it's likely that whoever they draft will cause more playing time issues with the other young Magic players. Harkless, Harris, Nicholson, O'Quinn all need a lot of playing time to develop. Plus both Big Baby Davis and Affalo are expect to return. Taking Noel or more likely McLemore #2 may force Orlando into a trade of Affalo or Davis.... Although I am sure the Magic will be looking to move BBD regardless.

Loss 3: Marcus Smart's decision likely drops him 2-10 spots in the epic 2014 NBA draft. This kind of drop will costs him millions dollars over his rookie contract. It also delays him a year towards his NBA free agency. In the worst case scenario, he risks a career altering injury.

There is no upside to staying in school. It's not like he's staying in to graduate. He'll still have two more years of college before he can get his degree. Is his NBA game going to get that better because he stayed in school? Nope.

IMO, you always take the $$$$!!!!!! There's no guarantee that the money will always be there. How would 35 year old Marcus Smart counsel 19 year old Marcus Smart?

Take a look at a Mock top 5 with Smart as the top pick:

1. Marcus Smart (Orlando via Cleveland)
2. Nerlens Noel (Cleveland via Orlando)
3. Otto Porter  (Washington)
4. Ben McLemore (Charlotte)
5. Alex Len (Phoenix)

This top 5 FEELS right to me. It's certainly much better than what we are looking at right now. It also gives myself, the NBA pundits, and such someone to latch onto.

Deconstructing The 2012 NBA Rookie Class (The Top 57 Rookies)

Before we get too deep into the 2013 NBA draft, we should to take a closer look at the 2012 rookies to see how they were uses and how they fared. This should tell us a lot about how GMs will draft this year and what type of results we can expect from the 2013 crop of rookies.

Damian Lillard was named the NBA's 2012-13 Rookie of the Year. This award could have been given out in January. Lillard was terrific all year. He outplayed his rookie classmates from the beginning of Summer League, where he was named co-MVP along with Josh Selby, all the way to game 82 of the regular season.

Lillard is only part of the story. I believe this particular rookie class is shaping up to be extremely deep, with a few potential All Star caliber players mixed in. However, based on pure first year results, this class seems very mediocre. Outside of the top 6-8 players, this class's depth will be built on young (19 & 20 y/o) late bloomers.

Ok, let's take a look at the top 57 rookies in order, broken out into categories. These are my ranking based on first years result, the player's ceiling, and where they are in the development process. Also, all rookies are included in this list, not just 2012 draft picks. International rookies (Alexey Shved, Nando De Colo, etc..) and undrafted FA rookies (Chris Copeland, Pablo Prigioni, etc...) are included.

Ready For Prime Time (1-5)

These are the top rookies who have carved out a significant rolls on their teams. They have also displayed a NBA ready game. I will not spend much time on these players since there is a lot of info around the Web on them. Plus, I am not really interested in the obvious. I love under-reported and unrealized potential. Nothing makes me happier than when a young player that I have been following, e.g. Tobias Harris, has a monster breaks out. Nothing make me more furious than when I missed seeing a breakout before it happens, e.g. Jimmy Butler.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
1     Damian Lillard                #6
2     Anthony Davis                 #1
3     Bradley Beal                  #3
4     Dion Waiters                  #4
5     Harrison Barnes               #7

Notes:
1.> Teams with a top 10 pick did very well in this draft. The player evaluations were mostly spot on.

WIP - Work In Progress (6-14)

These rookies are similar to the first group, but their games aren't ready for prime-time (hello MKG), have a lower ceiling (yep, that's you Kyle) , and/or they are not a sure thing. Some have major flaws, other just need consistency, but there are no guarantees with these player. For example, as a Timberwolves rookie Wes Johnson showed some promise, but he never got any better. Eventually Johnson dropped out of the rotation entirely.

Regardless, the teams who have drafted these rookies, have bought in and are giving them all the training and minutes that they can handle.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
6     Andre Drummond                #9
7     Maurice Harkless              #15 
8     Michael Kidd-Gilchrist        #2
9     Jared Sullinger               #21
10    Terrence Ross                 #8
11    Tyler Zeller                  #17
12    Patrick Beverley              International FA 
13    Austin Rivers                 #10
14    Kyle Singler                  #33 (2011)

Notes:

1.>  Sullinger's player evaluation was almost perfect, top 10 talent, but a major back injury risk.

2.> What? Harkless over MKG?!?!?!?! Are you crazy?

Maybe a little crazy, but both MKG and Harkless are 19 years old. A direct comparison of their year-end per-game stats comes up pretty even:

Name      Min Pts 3s  FG% FT% Rbs Assist Sts Blk TO
Harkless  26  8.2 0.3 46  57  4.4 0.7    1.2 0.8 0.9
MKG       26  9.0 0.0 46  75  5.8 1.5    0.7 0.9 1.3

Comparing the game logs for the two players, Harkless & MKG, tells a very different story. MKG's minutes & production were very steady throughout the season. The majority of Harkless' production came during the second half of the season.

Now check out the shot charts of the two players (via Vorped). Currently, MKG has a 1980s NBA game. All his shots are at the rim or mid-range. The majority of Harkless's shots are at the rim or a corner 3.

Kidd-Gilchrist

Harkless

Given that the NBA is a league which relies on the 3pt shot more and more, Harkless is 100% the prototypical NBA swing player. He is athletic & skilled enough to play shooting guard. At at 6' 8" 210 lbs, he is big enough to play power forward in a small-ball lineup. His natural position is probably small forward, but he is very versatile.

Kidd-Gilchrist may eventually extend his range and develop a 3pt shot, but as of today, I would choose Harkless over MKG 7 days a week. I fully expect Harkless to blow up next season. He's primed for a major breakout.

3.> If you read, The Curious Case off the Houston Rockets Point Guards, then you know that it's not inconceivable that Patrick Beverley may be the starting point guard for the Rockets nest season.

4.> If I had to pick two players from the WIP list who have a chance to Wes Johnson (fizzle out), I would probably take Terrence Ross and Tyler Zeller.

5.> I am not as down on Austin Rivers as most people. He really struggled this season, but that was somewhat expected. Many draft reports on him were that he was not ready for the NBA. He probably would have been better off staying in school or ending up on a team which red-shirted him (e.g. Jeremy Lamb playing in the D-League all season). The Hornets also did him no favors by trying to make him a point guard. Next season, expectations on him will be much less. That should help ease the pressure on him a bit. Reading into my crystal ball, I see him developing into a 6th man/spot starter type, e.g. a JR Smith, Jamal Crawford, or Jason Terry type.

Talent or Tease? (15-21)

Nicolas Batum or Anthony Randolph? That is the question for these select rookies. At one point during the season, each of these players had breakout game(s) causing each fan bases to brim with excitement. Each displayed a tantalizing skill set. However, they all lack the consistency to carve out a permanent spot in their team's rotations. Will they end up developing into a prime-time players? Or will they just end up eternal teases such as Randolph or Tyrus Thomas.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
15    John Henson                   #14
16    Donatas Motiejūnas            #20 (2011)
17    Alexey Shved                  International FA
18    Terrence Jones                #18
19    Evan Fournier                 #20
20    Andrew Nicholson              #19
21    Kyle O'Quinn                  #49

Notes:

1.> Kylie O'Quinn moved up one division on the strength of his 23/11/6 games against the Bobcats. He is the highest listed second round pick on my list.

2.> Terrence Jones almost ended up in the Red Shirted division. He spent the majority of the season dominating the D-League. Unexpectedly, Kevin McHale gave him some run over the last 8 games of the season while the Rockets were still fighting to make the playoffs/playoff position. He also notched two passable playoff performances. Jones reminds me of a Tobias Harris. They have similar size/game.

3.> None of these players are a sure thing. IMO, international players are a surer bet since they have already proven themselves overseas, e.g. Shved at the 2012 Olympics.

4.> Except for O'Quinn & Shved, the rest of these players were drafted in the teens/early 20s. This is another sign of spot-on player evaluations.



Rounding Out The Rotation (22-34)

These are the players who showed a little something this season, but not enough to cause fan rioting. These players may develop into solid rotational players, e.g. a Danny Green or Ian Mahinmi. Some may have a little more upside than other.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
22    John Jenkins                  #23
23    Nando De Colo                 #53 (2009)
24    Festus Ezeli                  #30 
25    Kendall Marshall              #13
26    Will Barton                   #40
27    Jae Crowder                   #34
28    Draymond Green                #35
29    Arnett Moultrie               #27
30    Jeffery Taylor                #31
31    Mike Scott                    #43
32    Orlando Johnson               #36
33    Quincy Acy                    #37
34    Khris Middleton               #39

Notes:

1.> John Jenkins has one of the best strokes in the entire league.

2.> Will Will Barton work on his 3pt shot this offseason? Will Will Barton be able to take over the starting SG job from Wesley Matthews? Will Will Barton...

3.> For some reason, I really like Khris Middleton. He's not afraid to shoot the ball, which is an underrated skill in the NBA.

4.> During training camp, coach Pop called Nando De Colo "Mini-Manu".

5.> Arnett Moultrie seems to have a bright future ahead of him with the 76ers.

6.> Notice the nice grouping of picks? Of the 13 players listed, 10 were picked from the late first round to the early second round. I didn't plan it this way, I swear! This seems like solid proof of good player evaluations scouting.

7.> The Pacers are a player development machine. Here is a list of the players that they drafted since 2008:

Year     Pick   Player
2012     26     Miles Plumlee
2011     15     Kawhi Leonard
2011     42     Dāvis Bertāns
2010     10     Paul George
2010     40     Lance Stephenson
2010     57     Ryan Reid
2009     13     Tyler Hansborough
2008     11     Jerryd Bayless
2008     41     Nathan Jawai

Only the two International stashes, Jawai & Bertāns, and red-shirted Miles Plumlee have failed to make an impact on the NBA. This bodes well for the Orlando Johnson's future.


Greg Stiemsma Division (35-36)

The guys listed can play in the NBA, but are much older than the average rookie. For lack-of-upside reasons, they are listed below the 'Rounding Out The Rotation' division.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
35    Chris Copeland                FA
36    Pablo Prigioni                International FA

Notes:

1.> I love Copeland. He can really light it up. My only regret for him is that he never got to play ball for Don Nelson. If Nellie coach the Knicks this year, Copelandsanity may have eclipsed Linsanity by a wide mile. Sadly, we will never know.

2.> As a Celtics fan, I already despise Pablo Prigioni.


Clearly Not Ready, May Never Be (37-42)

Each player list had an opportunity to seizes some consistent minutes or even a starting job. In all cases, they failed to make any head way. Perhaps they are not ready or they may not have NBA talent.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA 

37 Marquis Teague                   #29
38 Darius Miller                    #46
39 Robert Sacre                     #60
40 Doron Lamb                       #42
41 Bernard James                    #33
42 Joel Freeland                    #30 (2006)

1.> Marquis Teague had opportunity to play this season b/c Rose was out. Some Bulls fans even expect it, but he never was able to establish himself. He just wasn't ready.

2.> Bernard James can block shots. That skill alone may be enough to keep him in the NBA for a while.


Red Shirted (43-48)

Why are all of the first rounders listed so low? They all played less than 300 minutes total this past season. It's difficult to get a handle on them. There is just not enough data.

In some cases, e.g Jeremy Lamb, he dominated the D-League. This is a good sign, but far from proof that he will excel at the NBA level. In other cases, e.g. Mile Plumlee, he only played 2 D-League games and 14 games with the Pacers. There is barely a sample to go on. I will wait to pass judgement until next season. Each of these player should receive more playing time. If not, they will be moved to the BUST division.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
43    Jeremy Lamb                   #12
44    Perry Jones III               #28
45    Tony Wroten                   #25
46    Fab Melo                      #22
47    Miles Plumlee                 #26
48    Jared Cunningham              #24


All Disappointment Team (49-52)

They all showed up, but that's about all you can say about these players. This was the most difficult part of the rookie list for me. There are some potentially good NBA players listed below and being this low on the list isn't a nail in the coffin. It just shows where they at current at after 1 year in the NBA. For example, Larry Sanders' rookie ranking would have been here. For some players, it takes a season or two to develop. In Sander's case, his third season was his breakout.

The players listed here received one or more playing opportunities, but failed to show anything. I am probably being unfair to these players. Most of them were not ready for the NBA, but were thrust into playing b/c of injuries (Ezeli & Sacre). While others struggled with the transition to the NBA game (Teletovic).

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
49    Thomas Robinson               #5
50    Meyers Leonard                #11
51    Victor Claver                 #22 (2009)
52    Mirza Teletovich              International FA

Notes:

1.> Mirza "The Bosnian Steve Novak" Teletovich also had some moderate expectations on him before the season. After a terrific 2012 Olympics, he was expect to be a big scorer off the Nets bench, but he rarely ever left the pine at all. His confidence was seemingly crushed by Avery Johnson and he never recovered. P. J. Carlesimo have Teletovich a shot at Humphries 'first big off the bench' job, but he failed miserably. He will be 28 y/o next season. If he fails to gain any traction in the Nets rotation, he may be just another Euro-washout.

4.> I can't blame Thomas Robinson for not paying well for the Kings. The Kings put the FUN in dysFUNctional. However, I expected more of a Tobia Harris-esque explosion once he arrived in Houston. He had ample opportunity to become the starting PF or first big off the bench, but failed to 'carpe diem'. Some big men take longer to develop. He's not a bust yet, but he should start showing signed of progress next season or he'll be keeping Royce White company in the BUST division.


D-League All Stars (53-55)
 
None of these three player received anything more than token NBA playing time. All three players tore up the D-League . Dominating the D-League does not ensure NBA success, but it is a positive sign.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
53    Tornike Shengelia             #54
54    Tyshawn Taylor                #41
55    Kim English                   #44


BUST  Potential (56-57)


Start working on your Mandarin, the CBA (China Basketball Association) will be calling soon.

Rank  Name                          Draft Position/FA
56    Royce White                   #16
57    Kris Joseph                   #51

Notes:

1.> From a strict basketball player development view, there's too much drama surrounding Royce White and not enough actual basketball being played. When White did take the floor, in the D-League, he was.... underwhelming. He should be dominating the D-League.

Games Min Pts  3s  FG% FT% Rbs Assist Sts Blk TO
16    26  11.4 0.1 44  66  5.7 3.3    0.9 0.8 2.63

Stats via NBA.com

Unless White dedicates himself to basketball, he will be out of the league after his first rookie contract option is not exercised.

2.> It's difficult to call the 51st pick a bust, but I believe he was the first drafted player to be cut by his team. That qualifies him for the BUST division

Does Having The Best Player Always Determine The Outcome Of A Series? - Part 2 (Rolling Updates)

If you haven't read part 1, here you go: Does Having The Best Player Always Determine The Outcome Of A Series

Many NBA fans, including myself, believe that the team with the 'best player' going into a playoff series will win most of the time. Picking the 'best player' is subjective and wins & loses may be affected by injuries. In most cases the 'best player' is obvious, but not always. Let's see how my theory is holding up.

The scores after the first round:
 *Raw score:      5-3
**Adjusted score: 6-2

Round 2 (Conference Semi-Finals)

Matchup            Best Player       Pick        W/L  Actual Best Player
Heat   vs. Bulls   LBJ               Heat   win  LBJ 
Knicks vs. Pacers  Carmelo           Knicks loss Carmelo
OKC    vs. Griz    Durant            OKC    loss Durant 
Spurs  vs. GS      Stephen Curry           GS     loss Stephen Curry

 *Raw score:      1-3
**Adjusted score: 1-3

Playoff Totals:
 *Raw score:      6-6
**Adjusted score: 7-5

* The 'Raw score' is the win/loss record based off of the original 'best player' picks.
** The 'Adjusted score' is the 'Raw score' adjusted for mistakes that I made picking the 'Best Player'.

Additional Notes:

1. The Heat vs. Bulls series finished as expect, a semi-easy 4-1 win for Miami. Once again, James was by far the best player on the floor. The few healthy Bulls players were scrappy and played well. Ultimately they didn't have enough premiere talent to compete with Miami. For the Heat Wade's injury is a major concern. I am sure Pat Riley and company will be routing for the Knicks tonight. The longer the Knicks vs. Pacers go, the more rest for Wade.

2. Durant was the best player in the series, but outside of game 1 & maybe game 2, he was not the best player on floor in each game. Conley, Randolph, and Gasol all took turns outplaying Durant, especially in the forth quarters. The Grizzlies were a much better & deeper team than OKC. It's very likely that the Grizzlies make the finals this year. They match up extremely well again both Golden State and the Spurs. If they come to play, they could give the Heat a lot of trouble as they are strong where the Heat are weak, e.g. point guard & center. Plus Tony Allen against a 70% Wade puts all the scoring pressure on Bosh and James. This is a topic for another day.

It's difficult to blame Durant for the 1-4 loss. Loosing to Memphis was not unexpected, although the final score was. Without Westbrook and Harden to balance the scoring & play-making, Durant could not carry the team by himself.  However, the loss does put into focus a few things about OKC and it's roster.

a. Kevin Martin is no James Harden. Martin can put points up, but rarely contributes elsewhere and does not make his teammates better. He also rarely comes up big at the end of games. To steal a quote from Bill Simmons, Kevin Martin is an empty calories guy.

b. It's time for Perkins to go. As a Celtics fan, I will always love Perk. He was a beast for 07 title team, but he's been awful for the Thunder.

c. The Scott Brooks rotation of having Durant & Westbrook start and your best shooting guard come off the bench as a 6th man works MUCH better when Harden is your 6th man.

d. Reggie Jackson is for real. Next season, I expect him to replace Martin as the primary scorer off the bench with Liggins and/or Lamb playing the shooting guard spot.

e. It's time for Kevin Martin, Perkins, and Derek Fisher to leave OKC and never return... except as opponents.

f. Hindsight is 20/20, but Sam Presti should have done all he could to keep the Durant, Westbrook, Harden, & Ibaka combo together. Everybody else on the roster is expendable.

g. The shine is off of Presti. Super impressive drafting followed up by terrible trades (Green->Perk & Harden->Martin+). There are a tremendous amount of questions regarding Presti:

• Why did Presti keep Perk around so long? Is he being stubborn or committing the ultimate GM sin and keeping Perkins to defend the original deal?
• Did he really choose keeping Perk over a Harden max deal? 
• How did he misevaluate Harden so drastically? 
• Does Daryl Morey call Presti daily to rib him on the Harden deal? 
• More likely, does Daryl Morey call Presti daily trying to work another deal to re-pilfer the OKC roster?
• Can Presti get OKC in position to contend for the title in 2014 & 2015?
• Will Presti over react to the loss to Memphis and make another bad or short sighted trade?

h. Is Scott Brooks a good coach or is he just a fortunate coach? I am leaning towards the latter. He seems very stubborn and unwilling to change. A stumble next season could cost him his job.

i. Would Presti ever consider hiring Phil Jackson as head coach? It seems like a perfect fit. Phil only coaches teams with young sure-fire Hall Of Fame'rs who have a chance to win the title. OKC could use a better coach who would help Durant and Westbrook reach and win multiple titles.

3. Harrison Barnes was briefly knocked out of game 6. I am not saying that this was the same thing that happened during the 2007 playoffs when Robert Horry knocked Nash into the scorer's table, but the opposing team's best players always seem to get knocked around when playing the Spurs in the playoffs. 

This was my biggest fear going into the series. I assumed coach Pop would scheme a physical defense to make life difficult on Curry. However, after Harrison came alive and started carrying the Warriors for stretches, I should have expected him to get the Bruce Bowen treatment. At first glance it doesn't look like Diaw did anything inappropriate. Barnes initiated the contact, but as he went over Diaw's knee, Diaw kept raising it up in order to invert Barnes so he landed on his head. Was this on purpose? Probably, but just as an in-the-moment type of thing. I don't think he meant for Barnes to get hurt. He was just being overly physical.

The loss was surely painful for Warrior fans, but their future is very bright. GS may have been the better team, but the Spurs played better and more physical. Welcome to NBA playoff basketball! This loss should be a positive learning experience for the team. To quote Napoleon Hill, "Every failure brings with it the seed of an equivalent success."

Regardless, The Curry, Barnes, Thompson combo has to be considered one of the best young trios in the league. Big props to the ownership and front office!

4. The Knicks loss exposed the team as a good regular season team, but poorly constructed playoff team. Much like the Clippers with Chris Paul, the Knicks only have a 1 great player in Carmelo Anthony. Both JR Smith and Raymond Felton wilted as the playoffs progressed. Chandler & Stoudemire look like shadows of tier All Star-selves. It's difficult to see them getting past Miami or the Pacers in the next year or two. They really need a second elite player, but I given thiir current cap issues, I don't see that happening.

The Pacers are a well constructed, deep, and uninteresting team. I don't know why, but I glaze over whenever they are on. Regardless, they will give the Heat fits in the ECF. If the Knicks and Pacers are matched up against each other in the 2014 playoffs, I may have to take Paul George over Anthony as the best player. The kid is amazing at times. Once he is able to apply his will against his opponents a little more consistently in the playoffs, he may become the 4th best player in all of the NBA behind, LBJ, Durant, & Paul.


Round 3 (Conference Finals)

Matchup            Best Player       Pick
Heat   vs. Pacers  LBJ               Heat
Spurs  vs. Griz    Parker            Spurs


Additional Notes:

1. Parker had the best regular season,  finishing 5th in MVP voting. He's the best player going into the series. An argument could be made that Marc Gasol, the defensive player of the year, is the best player, but I will stick with Parker. He's the engine that drives the Spurs. Gasol is more of a equal part to the Memphis machine.

That said, if I were a betting man then I would take Memphis in this series. The Grizzlies large front court matches up well against the Spurs. Tony Allen should be able to slow Manu. If Conley can continue his strong play and can nullify Parker's production, Memphis should be able to win a very close series. Plus, I don't think the Spurs will be able to out-physical nor intimidate the Grizzlies. I may actually be the other way around.

Not that it means much, but this past regular season, the two teams split 4 games, each winning two at home. During the 2011 playoffs, the Grizzlies defeated the Spurs 4-2.

2. I like Miami in this series, but it will be a struggle. The Pacers will come to play an are well coached. Hibbert *should* have a monster series. There is no one on the Heat's roster, except LBJ, who should be able to stop him. However as it is with Hibbert, he'll likey be in foul trouble the first 2 games, nullifying the tremendous advantage that he gives to the Pacers. Needless to say, Hibbert can be frustrating at times.

Miami has been very close to unstoppable this season, including 8-1 in the playoffs. I don't expect that to change in this series, but I will take Miami in a *close* 5.

For The Boston Celtics, Winter Is Coming

In the moments following Danny Ainge's May 9th interview on WEEI in Boston, Celtics Nation collectively came to the stark realization that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett's days wearing the Green are over. Ainge is the rare brutally honest GM. There is no title run next season and Winter in Coming.

For those fan who do not wear green tinted glasses or if you read It's Over Because It's Over, then Danny's words were no surprise. The Celtics run ended when Ray signed with Miami, but came into focus the moment Rondo's ACL tore. Rather than curl up in a fetal position or talk ourselves into ways that Ainge can recreate the 2007 Ray Allen & KG trade magic, let's attempt to move forward and figure out what will really happen this summer.

The first step is to make some logical assumptions.

1. Rebuild a contender is a multi-step/year process. The 2007 Allen and KG trades were built over time. Those trades did not materialize overnight. Assets were draft, developed, and/or acquired.

2. Neither Dwight Howard nor Chris Paul are walking through that door.

3. The 2013 free agents and draft are mostly average.

4. The 2014 NBA draft may/will be epic, Wiggins, Parker, Smart, Harrison, etc...

5. The 2014 NBA free agent pool may be substantially better than 2013

6. Danny goal/focus is banner #18.

7. The Heat will win the 2013 title rather easily.

8. The Heat are the clear favorites to win the 2014 title.

9. The contracts of Wade, Bosh, and LBJ all have opt-outs after the 2014 season.

10.  The 2015 title is wide open.

Based on these assumptions, lets take a look at all of the possibilities for the Celtics this summer, ranked from least likely to most probable. For fun, I'll also add some probability percentages. Before we start, please drink your last cup of Celtics Green Kool-Aid. Now let's get started!


The Rabbit - 0.05%

Could Ainge pull a rabbit out of his hat? Could he somehow keep Pierce, Garnett, Rondo, and Green while upgrading the roster for next season and the future? This possibility would require Danny to trade some higher salaried players, (Terry, Lee, and/or Bass), plus a top asset or two, (Sully, draft picks, and/or Bradly) for a B+ premium player, e.g. Josh Smith, Big Al, Millsap, etc... Ainge would also have to deal with cap & tax issues. Celtics Life did a fine job breaking down the Josh Smith angle and the cap & tax implications. While Celtics fans are dreaming of this type of deal, it doesn't seem very likely. The Cs don't have the cap flexibility nor the best trade assets to pull this off. Plus, adding one of these players keeps the Cs in the playoffs, but doesn't get them past Miami next season. The Cs would then be committed to building around Rondo, Green, and a B+ player. That's an underwhelming new Big 3.

The reason that the percentage is not 0.0% is because there are a couple of short-term possibilities which would work for a year or two. A Nowitzki semi-rabbit deal is detailed in 'The Reload' section. Nowitzki would be a major rabbit for Danny to pull out of his hat. However, it's a very short term fix and probably hurts the franchise in the long run.


The Goldmine - 0.05%

The Goldmine is a deal or series of deals which leave the team flush in top young assets. The rumored KG for Bledsoe & DeAndre Jordan is one such deal. The idea that Ainge could flip both KG and Pierce for these types of deals is remote at best. There isn't a large market for 35+ talent. As fans, the best we could hope for in return for our two elder All Stars is a cap space and a decent asset per player. Perhaps the asset would be a protected pick or 1 good young player. No GM is going to pay James Harden prices for either Pierce or Garnett.


Fire In The Hole! - 5.9%

Could Ainge really blow it all up? This would include Ainge trading, amnestying, or buying out Pierce & KG for cap room and picks (in a trade scenario). Ainge would also look to move any veteran contract (Lee, Terry, and Bass) for expiring deals and picks.

Rondo may also be moved in this scenario, but perhaps not until the 2013/14 trade deadline. Perhaps Rondo would be put on the Derrik Rose ACL recovery plan and miss most of next season? Regardless, the Cs would be a major free fall..... aka tank. The goal would be to secure a top 2 2014 pick (Wiggins/Parker) and/or sign a major FA or two during the 2014 offseason. In actuality, this may be the best approach to take. We all remember what happened at the 2007 draft lottery, but landing the next Durant, Wade, LBJ, or even Stephen Curry would pave the way to contention for the next 10-12 years. To blow things up so drastically would be a major gamble and take brass balls the size of Rhode Island. Failing in the scenario could set the franchise back a decade.


The Reload - 9.0%

After the Celtics won the title in 2007, Ainge has reloaded the roster each offseason. This past offseason was no exception. On paper the Celtics did a good job replacing Allen with Terry. The Cs also finally put together some depth. In reality, almost every signing and trade failed to some degree. Even the Celtics heist of Sully at #21 in the draft ended on a sour, season-ending injury, note.

If Ainge decides to take this route again, he would need to address the backup point guard and center positions. However, a reload seems very unlikely. During the WEEI interview, Ainge admitted that the team was one player away from contending... a top player away. LBJ, Durant, Howard, nor CP3 are not walking through that door.

One very remote scenario would be for the Celtics to acquire Dirk Nowitzki from Dallas while keeping Rondo, Pierce, and KG. This is a half Rabbit & half Reload short-term type move. I doubt that Green could be kept in this type of deal, especially b/c of cap/tax reasons. So it falls more under a Reload since there aren't any non-Rondo premium building block left after Pierce, KG, and Dirk all move on. However, for two more seasons a Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Nowitzki, & KG starting 5, would be interesting. Also, it's very doubtful that Mark Cuban would let this happen on his watch.... unless he is too busy taping an episode of Shark Tank.


Nothin! - 10%

I don't believe it's realist that the Celtics will make the decision to stand pat this summer. If this does happen then it won't be because of lack of trying. I expect between 100-1000 rumors per day on the Celtics. They will be one of the most active teams, but if there really aren't any good-for-the-future-deals out there, then they will stand pat.... at least until the season starts.


Sideways - 10%

The Celtics may make a couple of head scratching moves which don't seem to help the team now or in the future. Danny and the front office would have valid reasons for these moves, but to us fans, they would seem random or lacking a purpose. For example, trading the 2013 #16 pick for a future conditional pick, drafting another project center behind Fab Melo, adding salary, or flipping Bass for Carl Landry. I don't believe that the summer will end with this type of result, but it could happen.


Get In Position To Be In Position - 30%

A long time ago I read, A Season on the Brink: A Year with Bob Knight and the Indiana Hoosiers . Knight was always preaching to his team that they needed to get into position to be in position. For the Celtics they would need to use this offseason to get in position to be in position for the 2014 draft and FA class. This is not to say that the Cs will outwardly tank and let Pierce and KG walk for nothing, but I expect that this offseason the Cs and many other teams will try to unload longer term contracts for expiring deals, improve their draft position, and acquire additional picks. The 2014 draft & FA class is sooooo good and deep with franchise altering players that it will be a major motivating factor THIS offseason.

After last season's spending spree, it will be very difficult for the Celtics to do this. The market for Lee, Bass, and Terry will be very thin. It's likely that the Celtics would have to include some sweetener picks or young players to make any deal like this happen. Perhaps another option would be to package one of these players in a Pierce or KG deal?

The other part of this type of offseason would be to construct next season's roster to secretly tank. One of the reasons that Nerlen Noel is still considered a top 3 pick is b/c of his ACL injury. Whoever selects him will likely rest him most of the season in an effort to NOT win games. The idea is to have top talented Noel and another top 3-5 pick from the 2014 class both start contributing during the 2014/15 season.... creative tanking!

The Celtics could accomplish this by retiring/trading KG, not signing a true center, and not signing a backup point guard for Rondo. Instead, they would have Lee and Terrence Williams play the point for the majority of the season. The center position would be manned by undersized power forwards like Bass, DJ White, and/or Wilcox. The Celtics would still have Pierce, but this would be terribly frustrating and painful for Celtics fans. They would probably only win 25-30 games and end up with the 8-10 pick in the draft. However, as the hype for the 2014 draft grows, the fans would certainly distract themselves with dreams of lottery wins and Wiggins wearing the Green.... or maybe the next Drummond.


Baby Steps - 35%

This is the most likely scenario. It's a combo of Sideways and Get In Position To Be In Position. The Celtics will try to do a lot things this offseason and most of them will fail. The end result is that Ainge will not make enough cap-freeing moves land the Celtics a premium free agent this year or next. Ainge will not be able to flip Pierce and KG for a slew of young talent and high draft picks. Nor will Ainge tear down the team enough to have it land a top 5 pick in the 2014 draft (lottery magic aside).

However, Ainge will be able to do is take a step or two in the right direction. He may be able to move one of his bad contracts, e.g. Lee or one of his super stars. If the Cs do trade Pierce or Garnett as opposed to a buyout or retirement, they should land one interesting prospect or pick.

Regardless, any moves this summer are just the first steps it the long Winter to raise banner #18. Those initial moves will probably involve Pierce and/or Garnett and they will just be the starters. Danny may take his next step at the trade deadline, flipping Rondo for a high pick. The possibilities are endless.

If Winter Is Coming, let's get it started. I am tried of waiting.

Does Having The Best Player Always Determine The Outcome Of A Series?

Many NBA fans, including myself, believe that the team with the 'best player' going into a playoff series will win most of the time. Picking the 'best player' is subjective and may be effected by injuries. In most cases the 'best player' is obvious. Let's see if this theory holds water.

Round 1

 Matchup             Best Player   Pick     W/L  Actual Best Player 
 Heat    vs. Buck    LBJ           Heat     win  LBJ
 Nets    vs. Bulls   Deron William Nets     loss Bulls team
 Pacers  vs. Hawks   Paul George   Pacers   win  Paul George
 Knicks  vs. Celtics Carmelo       Knicks   win  Carmelo
 Clips   vs. Griz    CP3           Clippers loss CP3
 Nuggets vs. GS      Stephen Curry GS       win  Stephen Curry
 Spurs   vs. Lakers  Dwight Howard Lakers   loss Tony Parker
 OKC     vs. Rockets Durant        OKC      win  Durant

 *Raw score:       5-3
 **Adjusted score: 6-2

Original picks posted here: Initial Thoughts On NBA Playoffs

* The  'Raw score' is the win/loss record based off of the original picks.
** The 'Adjusted score' is the 'Raw score' adjusted for mistakes that I made picking the 'Best Player'. In this case, I picked Dwight Howard as the best player in the Spurs vs. Lakers series. I blame my anti-Spur bias on this one. Parker was clearly the best player going into the series. Before his ankle injury, he was mentioned in some MVP chatter. Dwight was downright awful early in the season, but better near the end. Still, Parker was the better player in the regular season and should have been my pick in the playoffs.

Additional Notes:

1. Brook Lopez may have been the best player in the Nets vs. Bulls series. If Deron Williams wasn't the best player, he was probably second best. However, the Bulls were the best team by far. They played with heart and confidence. The Bulls are a group of veteran players who have been through some playoff battles. Ultimately, that seemed to be the deciding factor. The Nets players *should* learn from this loss.

2. Memphis was a team who's sum was greater than Chris Paul. The Clippers rosters is Chis Paul, an underwhelming Blake Griffin, and a litter of limited old role players. Paul was terrific, but it take more than 1 great player to win in the NBA.

--------------------------------------------------------------

After one round, the theory looks pretty good. Grant it, LBJ is padding the score a little. Round 2 will certainly be much tougher.

Round 2

 Matchup            Best Player       Pick
 Heat   vs. Bulls   LBJ               Heat    
 Knicks vs. Pacers  Carmelo           Knicks
 OKC    vs. Griz    Durant            OKC
 Spurs  vs. GS      Stephen Curry            GS

Additional Notes:

1. OKC and Memphis is the ultimate test of the 'Best Player Wins' theory. OKC has the best player in the series (Durant), but Memphis has the second, third, and maybe forth best players (Gasol, Z-Bo, and Conley).

2. Stephen Curry was a tough pick over Parker. Here comes my Spurs bias again. Parker is the best player on the Spurs (who had a better record than the Warriors) and had more MVP votes than Curry, (88-3), but Curry had a  record setting season (for 3-pointers in a season) and lifted the Warriors over the Nuggets without David Lee. He's the better player.