Damian Lillard was named the NBA's 2012-13 Rookie of the Year. This award could have been given out in January. Lillard was terrific all year. He outplayed his rookie classmates from the beginning of Summer League, where he was named co-MVP along with Josh Selby, all the way to game 82 of the regular season.
Lillard is only part of the story. I believe this particular rookie class is shaping up to be extremely deep, with a few potential All Star caliber players mixed in. However, based on pure first year results, this class seems very mediocre. Outside of the top 6-8 players, this class's depth will be built on young (19 & 20 y/o) late bloomers.
Ok, let's take a look at the top 57 rookies in order, broken out into categories. These are my ranking based on first years result, the player's ceiling, and where they are in the development process. Also, all rookies are included in this list, not just 2012 draft picks. International rookies (Alexey Shved, Nando De Colo, etc..) and undrafted FA rookies (Chris Copeland, Pablo Prigioni, etc...) are included.
Ready For Prime Time (1-5)
These are the top rookies who have carved out a significant rolls on their teams. They have also displayed a NBA ready game. I will not spend much time on these players since there is a lot of info around the Web on them. Plus, I am not really interested in the obvious. I love under-reported and unrealized potential. Nothing makes me happier than when a young player that I have been following, e.g. Tobias Harris, has a monster breaks out. Nothing make me more furious than when I missed seeing a breakout before it happens, e.g. Jimmy Butler.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
1 Damian Lillard #6
2 Anthony Davis #1
3 Bradley Beal #3
4 Dion Waiters #4
5 Harrison Barnes #7
Notes:
1.> Teams with a top 10 pick did very well in this draft. The player evaluations were mostly spot on.
WIP - Work In Progress (6-14)
These rookies are similar to the first group, but their games aren't ready for prime-time (hello MKG), have a lower ceiling (yep, that's you Kyle) , and/or they are not a sure thing. Some have major flaws, other just need consistency, but there are no guarantees with these player. For example, as a Timberwolves rookie Wes Johnson showed some promise, but he never got any better. Eventually Johnson dropped out of the rotation entirely.
Regardless, the teams who have drafted these rookies, have bought in and are giving them all the training and minutes that they can handle.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
6 Andre Drummond #9
7 Maurice Harkless #15
8 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist #2
9 Jared Sullinger #21
10 Terrence Ross #8
11 Tyler Zeller #17
12 Patrick Beverley International FA
13 Austin Rivers #10
14 Kyle Singler #33 (2011)
Notes:
1.> Sullinger's player evaluation was almost perfect, top 10 talent, but a major back injury risk.
2.> What? Harkless over MKG?!?!?!?! Are you crazy?
Maybe a little crazy, but both MKG and Harkless are 19 years old. A direct comparison of their year-end per-game stats comes up pretty even:
Name Min Pts 3s FG% FT% Rbs Assist Sts Blk TO
Harkless 26 8.2 0.3 46 57 4.4 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.9
MKG 26 9.0 0.0 46 75 5.8 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.3
Comparing the game logs for the two players, Harkless & MKG, tells a very different story. MKG's minutes & production were very steady throughout the season. The majority of Harkless' production came during the second half of the season.
Now check out the shot charts of the two players (via Vorped). Currently, MKG has a 1980s NBA game. All his shots are at the rim or mid-range. The majority of Harkless's shots are at the rim or a corner 3.
Kidd-Gilchrist
Harkless
Given that the NBA is a league which relies on the 3pt shot more and more, Harkless is 100% the prototypical NBA swing player. He is athletic & skilled enough to play shooting guard. At at 6' 8" 210 lbs, he is big enough to play power forward in a small-ball lineup. His natural position is probably small forward, but he is very versatile.
Kidd-Gilchrist may eventually extend his range and develop a 3pt shot, but as of today, I would choose Harkless over MKG 7 days a week. I fully expect Harkless to blow up next season. He's primed for a major breakout.
3.> If you read, The Curious Case off the Houston Rockets Point Guards, then you know that it's not inconceivable that Patrick Beverley may be the starting point guard for the Rockets nest season.
4.> If I had to pick two players from the WIP list who have a chance to Wes Johnson (fizzle out), I would probably take Terrence Ross and Tyler Zeller.
5.> I am not as down on Austin Rivers as most people. He really struggled this season, but that was somewhat expected. Many draft reports on him were that he was not ready for the NBA. He probably would have been better off staying in school or ending up on a team which red-shirted him (e.g. Jeremy Lamb playing in the D-League all season). The Hornets also did him no favors by trying to make him a point guard. Next season, expectations on him will be much less. That should help ease the pressure on him a bit. Reading into my crystal ball, I see him developing into a 6th man/spot starter type, e.g. a JR Smith, Jamal Crawford, or Jason Terry type.
Talent or Tease? (15-21)
Nicolas Batum or Anthony Randolph? That is the question for these select rookies. At one point during the season, each of these players had breakout game(s) causing each fan bases to brim with excitement. Each displayed a tantalizing skill set. However, they all lack the consistency to carve out a permanent spot in their team's rotations. Will they end up developing into a prime-time players? Or will they just end up eternal teases such as Randolph or Tyrus Thomas.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
15 John Henson #14
16 Donatas Motiejūnas #20 (2011)
17 Alexey Shved International FA
18 Terrence Jones #18
19 Evan Fournier #20
20 Andrew Nicholson #19
21 Kyle O'Quinn #49
Notes:
1.> Kylie O'Quinn moved up one division on the strength of his 23/11/6 games against the Bobcats. He is the highest listed second round pick on my list.
2.> Terrence Jones almost ended up in the Red Shirted division. He spent the majority of the season dominating the D-League. Unexpectedly, Kevin McHale gave him some run over the last 8 games of the season while the Rockets were still fighting to make the playoffs/playoff position. He also notched two passable playoff performances. Jones reminds me of a Tobias Harris. They have similar size/game.
3.> None of these players are a sure thing. IMO, international players are a surer bet since they have already proven themselves overseas, e.g. Shved at the 2012 Olympics.
4.> Except for O'Quinn & Shved, the rest of these players were drafted in the teens/early 20s. This is another sign of spot-on player evaluations.
Rounding Out The Rotation (22-34)
These are the players who showed a little something this season, but not enough to cause fan rioting. These players may develop into solid rotational players, e.g. a Danny Green or Ian Mahinmi. Some may have a little more upside than other.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
22 John Jenkins #23
23 Nando De Colo #53 (2009)
24 Festus Ezeli #30
25 Kendall Marshall #13
26 Will Barton #40
27 Jae Crowder #34
28 Draymond Green #35
29 Arnett Moultrie #27
30 Jeffery Taylor #31
31 Mike Scott #43
32 Orlando Johnson #36
33 Quincy Acy #37
34 Khris Middleton #39
Notes:
1.> John Jenkins has one of the best strokes in the entire league.
2.> Will Will Barton work on his 3pt shot this offseason? Will Will Barton be able to take over the starting SG job from Wesley Matthews? Will Will Barton...
3.> For some reason, I really like Khris Middleton. He's not afraid to shoot the ball, which is an underrated skill in the NBA.
4.> During training camp, coach Pop called Nando De Colo "Mini-Manu".
5.> Arnett Moultrie seems to have a bright future ahead of him with the 76ers.
6.> Notice the nice grouping of picks? Of the 13 players listed, 10 were picked from the late first round to the early second round. I didn't plan it this way, I swear! This seems like solid proof of good player evaluations scouting.
7.> The Pacers are a player development machine. Here is a list of the players that they drafted since 2008:
Year Pick Player
2012 26 Miles Plumlee
2011 15 Kawhi Leonard
2011 42 Dāvis Bertāns
2010 10 Paul George
2010 40 Lance Stephenson
2010 57 Ryan Reid
2009 13 Tyler Hansborough
2008 11 Jerryd Bayless
2008 41 Nathan Jawai
Only the two International stashes, Jawai & Bertāns, and red-shirted Miles Plumlee have failed to make an impact on the NBA. This bodes well for the Orlando Johnson's future.
Greg Stiemsma Division (35-36)
The guys listed can play in the NBA, but are much older than the average rookie. For lack-of-upside reasons, they are listed below the 'Rounding Out The Rotation' division.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
35 Chris Copeland FA
36 Pablo Prigioni International FA
Notes:
1.> I love Copeland. He can really light it up. My only regret for him is that he never got to play ball for Don Nelson. If Nellie coach the Knicks this year, Copelandsanity may have eclipsed Linsanity by a wide mile. Sadly, we will never know.
2.> As a Celtics fan, I already despise Pablo Prigioni.
Clearly Not Ready, May Never Be (37-42)
Each player list had an opportunity to seizes some consistent minutes or even a starting job. In all cases, they failed to make any head way. Perhaps they are not ready or they may not have NBA talent.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
37 Marquis Teague #29
38 Darius Miller #46
39 Robert Sacre #60
40 Doron Lamb #42
41 Bernard James #33
42 Joel Freeland #30 (2006)
1.> Marquis Teague had opportunity to play this season b/c Rose was out. Some Bulls fans even expect it, but he never was able to establish himself. He just wasn't ready.
2.> Bernard James can block shots. That skill alone may be enough to keep him in the NBA for a while.
Red Shirted (43-48)
Why are all of the first rounders listed so low? They all played less than 300 minutes total this past season. It's difficult to get a handle on them. There is just not enough data.
In some cases, e.g Jeremy Lamb, he dominated the D-League. This is a good sign, but far from proof that he will excel at the NBA level. In other cases, e.g. Mile Plumlee, he only played 2 D-League games and 14 games with the Pacers. There is barely a sample to go on. I will wait to pass judgement until next season. Each of these player should receive more playing time. If not, they will be moved to the BUST division.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
43 Jeremy Lamb #12
44 Perry Jones III #28
45 Tony Wroten #25
46 Fab Melo #22
47 Miles Plumlee #26
48 Jared Cunningham #24
All Disappointment Team (49-52)
They all showed up, but that's about all you can say about these players. This was the most difficult part of the rookie list for me. There are some potentially good NBA players listed below and being this low on the list isn't a nail in the coffin. It just shows where they at current at after 1 year in the NBA. For example, Larry Sanders' rookie ranking would have been here. For some players, it takes a season or two to develop. In Sander's case, his third season was his breakout.
The players listed here received one or more playing opportunities, but failed to show anything. I am probably being unfair to these players. Most of them were not ready for the NBA, but were thrust into playing b/c of injuries (Ezeli & Sacre). While others struggled with the transition to the NBA game (Teletovic).
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
49 Thomas Robinson #5
50 Meyers Leonard #11
51 Victor Claver #22 (2009)
52 Mirza Teletovich International FA
Notes:
1.> Mirza "The Bosnian Steve Novak" Teletovich also had some moderate expectations on him before the season. After a terrific 2012 Olympics, he was expect to be a big scorer off the Nets bench, but he rarely ever left the pine at all. His confidence was seemingly crushed by Avery Johnson and he never recovered. P. J. Carlesimo have Teletovich a shot at Humphries 'first big off the bench' job, but he failed miserably. He will be 28 y/o next season. If he fails to gain any traction in the Nets rotation, he may be just another Euro-washout.
4.> I can't blame Thomas Robinson for not paying well for the Kings. The Kings put the FUN in dysFUNctional. However, I expected more of a Tobia Harris-esque explosion once he arrived in Houston. He had ample opportunity to become the starting PF or first big off the bench, but failed to 'carpe diem'. Some big men take longer to develop. He's not a bust yet, but he should start showing signed of progress next season or he'll be keeping Royce White company in the BUST division.
D-League All Stars (53-55)
None of these three player received anything more than token NBA playing time. All three players tore up the D-League . Dominating the D-League does not ensure NBA success, but it is a positive sign.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
53 Tornike Shengelia #54
54 Tyshawn Taylor #41
55 Kim English #44
BUST Potential (56-57)
Start working on your Mandarin, the CBA (China Basketball Association) will be calling soon.
Rank Name Draft Position/FA
56 Royce White #16
57 Kris Joseph #51
Notes:
1.> From a strict basketball player development view, there's too much drama surrounding Royce White and not enough actual basketball being played. When White did take the floor, in the D-League, he was.... underwhelming. He should be dominating the D-League.
Games Min Pts 3s FG% FT% Rbs Assist Sts Blk TO
16 26 11.4 0.1 44 66 5.7 3.3 0.9 0.8 2.63
Stats via NBA.com
Unless White dedicates himself to basketball, he will be out of the league after his first rookie contract option is not exercised.
2.> It's difficult to call the 51st pick a bust, but I believe he was the first drafted player to be cut by his team. That qualifies him for the BUST division
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