Does Having The Best Player Always Determine The Outcome Of A Series?

Many NBA fans, including myself, believe that the team with the 'best player' going into a playoff series will win most of the time. Picking the 'best player' is subjective and may be effected by injuries. In most cases the 'best player' is obvious. Let's see if this theory holds water.

Round 1

 Matchup             Best Player   Pick     W/L  Actual Best Player 
 Heat    vs. Buck    LBJ           Heat     win  LBJ
 Nets    vs. Bulls   Deron William Nets     loss Bulls team
 Pacers  vs. Hawks   Paul George   Pacers   win  Paul George
 Knicks  vs. Celtics Carmelo       Knicks   win  Carmelo
 Clips   vs. Griz    CP3           Clippers loss CP3
 Nuggets vs. GS      Stephen Curry GS       win  Stephen Curry
 Spurs   vs. Lakers  Dwight Howard Lakers   loss Tony Parker
 OKC     vs. Rockets Durant        OKC      win  Durant

 *Raw score:       5-3
 **Adjusted score: 6-2

Original picks posted here: Initial Thoughts On NBA Playoffs

* The  'Raw score' is the win/loss record based off of the original picks.
** The 'Adjusted score' is the 'Raw score' adjusted for mistakes that I made picking the 'Best Player'. In this case, I picked Dwight Howard as the best player in the Spurs vs. Lakers series. I blame my anti-Spur bias on this one. Parker was clearly the best player going into the series. Before his ankle injury, he was mentioned in some MVP chatter. Dwight was downright awful early in the season, but better near the end. Still, Parker was the better player in the regular season and should have been my pick in the playoffs.

Additional Notes:

1. Brook Lopez may have been the best player in the Nets vs. Bulls series. If Deron Williams wasn't the best player, he was probably second best. However, the Bulls were the best team by far. They played with heart and confidence. The Bulls are a group of veteran players who have been through some playoff battles. Ultimately, that seemed to be the deciding factor. The Nets players *should* learn from this loss.

2. Memphis was a team who's sum was greater than Chris Paul. The Clippers rosters is Chis Paul, an underwhelming Blake Griffin, and a litter of limited old role players. Paul was terrific, but it take more than 1 great player to win in the NBA.

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After one round, the theory looks pretty good. Grant it, LBJ is padding the score a little. Round 2 will certainly be much tougher.

Round 2

 Matchup            Best Player       Pick
 Heat   vs. Bulls   LBJ               Heat    
 Knicks vs. Pacers  Carmelo           Knicks
 OKC    vs. Griz    Durant            OKC
 Spurs  vs. GS      Stephen Curry            GS

Additional Notes:

1. OKC and Memphis is the ultimate test of the 'Best Player Wins' theory. OKC has the best player in the series (Durant), but Memphis has the second, third, and maybe forth best players (Gasol, Z-Bo, and Conley).

2. Stephen Curry was a tough pick over Parker. Here comes my Spurs bias again. Parker is the best player on the Spurs (who had a better record than the Warriors) and had more MVP votes than Curry, (88-3), but Curry had a  record setting season (for 3-pointers in a season) and lifted the Warriors over the Nuggets without David Lee. He's the better player.