Many NBA fans, including myself, believe that the team with the 'best player' going into a playoff series will win most of the time. Picking the 'best player' is subjective and wins & loses may be affected by injuries. In most cases the 'best player' is obvious, but not always. Let's see how my theory is holding up.
The scores after the first round:
*Raw score: 5-3
**Adjusted score: 6-2
Round 2 (Conference Semi-Finals)
Matchup Best Player Pick W/L Actual Best Player
Heat vs. Bulls LBJ Heat win LBJ
Knicks vs. Pacers Carmelo Knicks loss Carmelo
OKC vs. Griz Durant OKC loss Durant
Spurs vs. GS Stephen Curry GS loss Stephen Curry
*Raw score: 1-3
**Adjusted score: 1-3
Playoff Totals:
*Raw score: 6-6
**Adjusted score: 7-5
* The 'Raw score' is the win/loss record based off of the original 'best player' picks.
** The 'Adjusted score' is the 'Raw score' adjusted for mistakes that I made picking the 'Best Player'.
Additional Notes:
1. The Heat vs. Bulls series finished as expect, a semi-easy 4-1 win for Miami. Once again, James was by far the best player on the floor. The few healthy Bulls players were scrappy and played well. Ultimately they didn't have enough premiere talent to compete with Miami. For the Heat Wade's injury is a major concern. I am sure Pat Riley and company will be routing for the Knicks tonight. The longer the Knicks vs. Pacers go, the more rest for Wade.
2. Durant was the best player in the series, but outside of game 1 & maybe game 2, he was not the best player on floor in each game. Conley, Randolph, and Gasol all took turns outplaying Durant, especially in the forth quarters. The Grizzlies were a much better & deeper team than OKC. It's very likely that the Grizzlies make the finals this year. They match up extremely well again both Golden State and the Spurs. If they come to play, they could give the Heat a lot of trouble as they are strong where the Heat are weak, e.g. point guard & center. Plus Tony Allen against a 70% Wade puts all the scoring pressure on Bosh and James. This is a topic for another day.
It's difficult to blame Durant for the 1-4 loss. Loosing to Memphis was not unexpected, although the final score was. Without Westbrook and Harden to balance the scoring & play-making, Durant could not carry the team by himself. However, the loss does put into focus a few things about OKC and it's roster.
a. Kevin Martin is no James Harden. Martin can put points up, but rarely contributes elsewhere and does not make his teammates better. He also rarely comes up big at the end of games. To steal a quote from Bill Simmons, Kevin Martin is an empty calories guy.
b. It's time for Perkins to go. As a Celtics fan, I will always love Perk. He was a beast for 07 title team, but he's been awful for the Thunder.
c. The Scott Brooks rotation of having Durant & Westbrook start and your best shooting guard come off the bench as a 6th man works MUCH better when Harden is your 6th man.
d. Reggie Jackson is for real. Next season, I expect him to replace Martin as the primary scorer off the bench with Liggins and/or Lamb playing the shooting guard spot.
e. It's time for Kevin Martin, Perkins, and Derek Fisher to leave OKC and never return... except as opponents.
f. Hindsight is 20/20, but Sam Presti should have done all he could to keep the Durant, Westbrook, Harden, & Ibaka combo together. Everybody else on the roster is expendable.
g. The shine is off of Presti. Super impressive drafting followed up by terrible trades (Green->Perk & Harden->Martin+). There are a tremendous amount of questions regarding Presti:
- Why did Presti keep Perk around so long? Is he being stubborn or committing the ultimate GM sin and keeping Perkins to defend the original deal?
- Did he really choose keeping Perk over a Harden max deal?
- How did he misevaluate Harden so drastically?
- Does Daryl Morey call Presti daily to rib him on the Harden deal?
- More likely, does Daryl Morey call Presti daily trying to work another deal to re-pilfer the OKC roster?
- Can Presti get OKC in position to contend for the title in 2014 & 2015?
- Will Presti over react to the loss to Memphis and make another bad or short sighted trade?
i. Would Presti ever consider hiring Phil Jackson as head coach? It seems like a perfect fit. Phil only coaches teams with young sure-fire Hall Of Fame'rs who have a chance to win the title. OKC could use a better coach who would help Durant and Westbrook reach and win multiple titles.
3. Harrison Barnes was briefly knocked out of game 6. I am not saying that this was the same thing that happened during the 2007 playoffs when Robert Horry knocked Nash into the scorer's table, but the opposing team's best players always seem to get knocked around when playing the Spurs in the playoffs.
This was my biggest fear going into the series. I assumed coach Pop would scheme a physical defense to make life difficult on Curry. However, after Harrison came alive and started carrying the Warriors for stretches, I should have expected him to get the Bruce Bowen treatment. At first glance it doesn't look like Diaw did anything inappropriate. Barnes initiated the contact, but as he went over Diaw's knee, Diaw kept raising it up in order to invert Barnes so he landed on his head. Was this on purpose? Probably, but just as an in-the-moment type of thing. I don't think he meant for Barnes to get hurt. He was just being overly physical.
The loss was surely painful for Warrior fans, but their future is very bright. GS may have been the better team, but the Spurs played better and more physical. Welcome to NBA playoff basketball! This loss should be a positive learning experience for the team. To quote Napoleon Hill, "Every failure brings with it the seed of an equivalent success."
Regardless, The Curry, Barnes, Thompson combo has to be considered one of the best young trios in the league. Big props to the ownership and front office!
4. The Knicks loss exposed the team as a good regular season team, but poorly constructed playoff team. Much like the Clippers with Chris Paul, the Knicks only have a 1 great player in Carmelo Anthony. Both JR Smith and Raymond Felton wilted as the playoffs progressed. Chandler & Stoudemire look like shadows of tier All Star-selves. It's difficult to see them getting past Miami or the Pacers in the next year or two. They really need a second elite player, but I given thiir current cap issues, I don't see that happening.
The Pacers are a well constructed, deep, and uninteresting team. I don't know why, but I glaze over whenever they are on. Regardless, they will give the Heat fits in the ECF. If the Knicks and Pacers are matched up against each other in the 2014 playoffs, I may have to take Paul George over Anthony as the best player. The kid is amazing at times. Once he is able to apply his will against his opponents a little more consistently in the playoffs, he may become the 4th best player in all of the NBA behind, LBJ, Durant, & Paul.
Round 3 (Conference Finals)
Matchup Best Player Pick
Heat vs. Pacers LBJ Heat
Spurs vs. Griz Parker Spurs
Additional Notes:
1. Parker had the best regular season, finishing 5th in MVP voting. He's the best player going into the series. An argument could be made that Marc Gasol, the defensive player of the year, is the best player, but I will stick with Parker. He's the engine that drives the Spurs. Gasol is more of a equal part to the Memphis machine.
That said, if I were a betting man then I would take Memphis in this series. The Grizzlies large front court matches up well against the Spurs. Tony Allen should be able to slow Manu. If Conley can continue his strong play and can nullify Parker's production, Memphis should be able to win a very close series. Plus, I don't think the Spurs will be able to out-physical nor intimidate the Grizzlies. I may actually be the other way around.
Not that it means much, but this past regular season, the two teams split 4 games, each winning two at home. During the 2011 playoffs, the Grizzlies defeated the Spurs 4-2.
2. I like Miami in this series, but it will be a struggle. The Pacers will come to play an are well coached. Hibbert *should* have a monster series. There is no one on the Heat's roster, except LBJ, who should be able to stop him. However as it is with Hibbert, he'll likey be in foul trouble the first 2 games, nullifying the tremendous advantage that he gives to the Pacers. Needless to say, Hibbert can be frustrating at times.
Miami has been very close to unstoppable this season, including 8-1 in the playoffs. I don't expect that to change in this series, but I will take Miami in a *close* 5.
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