For those fan who do not wear green tinted glasses or if you read It's Over Because It's Over, then Danny's words were no surprise. The Celtics run ended when Ray signed with Miami, but came into focus the moment Rondo's ACL tore. Rather than curl up in a fetal position or talk ourselves into ways that Ainge can recreate the 2007 Ray Allen & KG trade magic, let's attempt to move forward and figure out what will really happen this summer.
The first step is to make some logical assumptions.
1. Rebuild a contender is a multi-step/year process. The 2007 Allen and KG trades were built over time. Those trades did not materialize overnight. Assets were draft, developed, and/or acquired.
2. Neither Dwight Howard nor Chris Paul are walking through that door.
3. The 2013 free agents and draft are mostly average.
4. The 2014 NBA draft may/will be epic, Wiggins, Parker, Smart, Harrison, etc...
5. The 2014 NBA free agent pool may be substantially better than 2013
6. Danny goal/focus is banner #18.
7. The Heat will win the 2013 title rather easily.
8. The Heat are the clear favorites to win the 2014 title.
9. The contracts of Wade, Bosh, and LBJ all have opt-outs after the 2014 season.
10. The 2015 title is wide open.
Based on these assumptions, lets take a look at all of the possibilities for the Celtics this summer, ranked from least likely to most probable. For fun, I'll also add some probability percentages. Before we start, please drink your last cup of Celtics Green Kool-Aid. Now let's get started!
The Rabbit - 0.05%
Could Ainge pull a rabbit out of his hat? Could he somehow keep Pierce, Garnett, Rondo, and Green while upgrading the roster for next season and the future? This possibility would require Danny to trade some higher salaried players, (Terry, Lee, and/or Bass), plus a top asset or two, (Sully, draft picks, and/or Bradly) for a B+ premium player, e.g. Josh Smith, Big Al, Millsap, etc... Ainge would also have to deal with cap & tax issues. Celtics Life did a fine job breaking down the Josh Smith angle and the cap & tax implications. While Celtics fans are dreaming of this type of deal, it doesn't seem very likely. The Cs don't have the cap flexibility nor the best trade assets to pull this off. Plus, adding one of these players keeps the Cs in the playoffs, but doesn't get them past Miami next season. The Cs would then be committed to building around Rondo, Green, and a B+ player. That's an underwhelming new Big 3.
The reason that the percentage is not 0.0% is because there are a couple of short-term possibilities which would work for a year or two. A Nowitzki semi-rabbit deal is detailed in 'The Reload' section. Nowitzki would be a major rabbit for Danny to pull out of his hat. However, it's a very short term fix and probably hurts the franchise in the long run.
The Goldmine - 0.05%
The Goldmine is a deal or series of deals which leave the team flush in top young assets. The rumored KG for Bledsoe & DeAndre Jordan is one such deal. The idea that Ainge could flip both KG and Pierce for these types of deals is remote at best. There isn't a large market for 35+ talent. As fans, the best we could hope for in return for our two elder All Stars is a cap space and a decent asset per player. Perhaps the asset would be a protected pick or 1 good young player. No GM is going to pay James Harden prices for either Pierce or Garnett.
Fire In The Hole! - 5.9%
Could Ainge really blow it all up? This would include Ainge trading, amnestying, or buying out Pierce & KG for cap room and picks (in a trade scenario). Ainge would also look to move any veteran contract (Lee, Terry, and Bass) for expiring deals and picks.
Rondo may also be moved in this scenario, but perhaps not until the 2013/14 trade deadline. Perhaps Rondo would be put on the Derrik Rose ACL recovery plan and miss most of next season? Regardless, the Cs would be a major free fall..... aka tank. The goal would be to secure a top 2 2014 pick (Wiggins/Parker) and/or sign a major FA or two during the 2014 offseason. In actuality, this may be the best approach to take. We all remember what happened at the 2007 draft lottery, but landing the next Durant, Wade, LBJ, or even Stephen Curry would pave the way to contention for the next 10-12 years. To blow things up so drastically would be a major gamble and take brass balls the size of Rhode Island. Failing in the scenario could set the franchise back a decade.
The Reload - 9.0%
After the Celtics won the title in 2007, Ainge has reloaded the roster each offseason. This past offseason was no exception. On paper the Celtics did a good job replacing Allen with Terry. The Cs also finally put together some depth. In reality, almost every signing and trade failed to some degree. Even the Celtics heist of Sully at #21 in the draft ended on a sour, season-ending injury, note.
If Ainge decides to take this route again, he would need to address the backup point guard and center positions. However, a reload seems very unlikely. During the WEEI interview, Ainge admitted that the team was one player away from contending... a top player away. LBJ, Durant, Howard, nor CP3 are not walking through that door.
One very remote scenario would be for the Celtics to acquire Dirk Nowitzki from Dallas while keeping Rondo, Pierce, and KG. This is a half Rabbit & half Reload short-term type move. I doubt that Green could be kept in this type of deal, especially b/c of cap/tax reasons. So it falls more under a Reload since there aren't any non-Rondo premium building block left after Pierce, KG, and Dirk all move on. However, for two more seasons a Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Nowitzki, & KG starting 5, would be interesting. Also, it's very doubtful that Mark Cuban would let this happen on his watch.... unless he is too busy taping an episode of Shark Tank.
Nothin! - 10%
I don't believe it's realist that the Celtics will make the decision to stand pat this summer. If this does happen then it won't be because of lack of trying. I expect between 100-1000 rumors per day on the Celtics. They will be one of the most active teams, but if there really aren't any good-for-the-future-deals out there, then they will stand pat.... at least until the season starts.
Sideways - 10%
The Celtics may make a couple of head scratching moves which don't seem to help the team now or in the future. Danny and the front office would have valid reasons for these moves, but to us fans, they would seem random or lacking a purpose. For example, trading the 2013 #16 pick for a future conditional pick, drafting another project center behind Fab Melo, adding salary, or flipping Bass for Carl Landry. I don't believe that the summer will end with this type of result, but it could happen.
Get In Position To Be In Position - 30%
A long time ago I read, A Season on the Brink: A Year with Bob Knight and the Indiana Hoosiers . Knight was always preaching to his team that they needed to get into position to be in position. For the Celtics they would need to use this offseason to get in position to be in position for the 2014 draft and FA class. This is not to say that the Cs will outwardly tank and let Pierce and KG walk for nothing, but I expect that this offseason the Cs and many other teams will try to unload longer term contracts for expiring deals, improve their draft position, and acquire additional picks. The 2014 draft & FA class is sooooo good and deep with franchise altering players that it will be a major motivating factor THIS offseason.
After last season's spending spree, it will be very difficult for the Celtics to do this. The market for Lee, Bass, and Terry will be very thin. It's likely that the Celtics would have to include some sweetener picks or young players to make any deal like this happen. Perhaps another option would be to package one of these players in a Pierce or KG deal?
The other part of this type of offseason would be to construct next season's roster to secretly tank. One of the reasons that Nerlen Noel is still considered a top 3 pick is b/c of his ACL injury. Whoever selects him will likely rest him most of the season in an effort to NOT win games. The idea is to have top talented Noel and another top 3-5 pick from the 2014 class both start contributing during the 2014/15 season.... creative tanking!
The Celtics could accomplish this by retiring/trading KG, not signing a true center, and not signing a backup point guard for Rondo. Instead, they would have Lee and Terrence Williams play the point for the majority of the season. The center position would be manned by undersized power forwards like Bass, DJ White, and/or Wilcox. The Celtics would still have Pierce, but this would be terribly frustrating and painful for Celtics fans. They would probably only win 25-30 games and end up with the 8-10 pick in the draft. However, as the hype for the 2014 draft grows, the fans would certainly distract themselves with dreams of lottery wins and Wiggins wearing the Green.... or maybe the next Drummond.
Baby Steps - 35%
This is the most likely scenario. It's a combo of Sideways and Get In Position To Be In Position. The Celtics will try to do a lot things this offseason and most of them will fail. The end result is that Ainge will not make enough cap-freeing moves land the Celtics a premium free agent this year or next. Ainge will not be able to flip Pierce and KG for a slew of young talent and high draft picks. Nor will Ainge tear down the team enough to have it land a top 5 pick in the 2014 draft (lottery magic aside).
However, Ainge will be able to do is take a step or two in the right direction. He may be able to move one of his bad contracts, e.g. Lee or one of his super stars. If the Cs do trade Pierce or Garnett as opposed to a buyout or retirement, they should land one interesting prospect or pick.
Regardless, any moves this summer are just the first steps it the long Winter to raise banner #18. Those initial moves will probably involve Pierce and/or Garnett and they will just be the starters. Danny may take his next step at the trade deadline, flipping Rondo for a high pick. The possibilities are endless.
If Winter Is Coming, let's get it started. I am tried of waiting.
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