1. There was no consensus top pick going into this year. This left the NBA pundits and GMs without someone to latch onto. This is not uncommon, but it did start a negative trend towards the draft.
2. This has been an unprecedented year for serious injuries to top players. Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, and Anthony Bennett have all suffered terrible injuries at the time when NBA GMs are building their players evaluations.
3. No one has stepped up to take the top spot. In fact since the NCAA tournament started, no top player has even played all that well except for Trey Burke. Each of the players who were considered cream of the draft crop, failed to live up to that billing.
- Noel was playing ok, but then tore his ACL.
- Shabazz had a season long implosion. First he was rules ineligible by the NCAA and missed a few games. When he finally did play, he was underwhelming. Finally, his father outed him as 20 y/o.
- After deciding to stay in school another season, Cody Zeller didn't play up to heightened and unrealistic expectations. Consequently, he was picked apart by analysts.
- McLemore shrunk under the weight of being the consensus top pick.
- Noel again started to gain some #1 momentum until he weighed in at a super skinny 206lbs at the NBA Combine.
4. Marcus Smart inexplicably decided to stay in school for another year. It's my contention that he would have been this year's Kyrie Irving. Within a month of the actual draft, he would have assumed the #1 pick status. He played very well this season and didn't do anything to hurt his status during the tournament.
Cleveland of course would not select him #1, but could have likely traded him/the #1 pick to Orlando, Sacramento, Detroit, or maybe even New Orleans. It's clear that the Orlando Magic REALLY wanted Marcus Smart. They also have the assets to make the best deal with Cleveland.
Marcus Smart's decision to stay in school is a classic and very rare lose-lose-lose scenario.
Loss 1: Cleveland loses a lot of trade value on their #1 overall pick. Without a consensus #1, it's unlikely that any other team would pay a premium to move up to #1.
Loss 2: Orlando lose out on their point guard of the future. The Magic are stocked with talented young players at every position except for point guard. Unless they decide to take Burk #2 overall, it's likely that whoever they draft will cause more playing time issues with the other young Magic players. Harkless, Harris, Nicholson, O'Quinn all need a lot of playing time to develop. Plus both Big Baby Davis and Affalo are expect to return. Taking Noel or more likely McLemore #2 may force Orlando into a trade of Affalo or Davis.... Although I am sure the Magic will be looking to move BBD regardless.
Loss 3: Marcus Smart's decision likely drops him 2-10 spots in the epic 2014 NBA draft. This kind of drop will costs him millions dollars over his rookie contract. It also delays him a year towards his NBA free agency. In the worst case scenario, he risks a career altering injury.
There is no upside to staying in school. It's not like he's staying in to graduate. He'll still have two more years of college before he can get his degree. Is his NBA game going to get that better because he stayed in school? Nope.
IMO, you always take the $$$$!!!!!! There's no guarantee that the money will always be there. How would 35 year old Marcus Smart counsel 19 year old Marcus Smart?
Take a look at a Mock top 5 with Smart as the top pick:
1. Marcus Smart (Orlando via Cleveland)
2. Nerlens Noel (Cleveland via Orlando)
3. Otto Porter (Washington)
4. Ben McLemore (Charlotte)
5. Alex Len (Phoenix)
This top 5 FEELS right to me. It's certainly much better than what we are looking at right now. It also gives myself, the NBA pundits, and such someone to latch onto.
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