In an attempt to make an objective draft prediction for the Boston Celtics, we'll examine historical and current pre-draft workout lists, looking for any patterns that may be used to construct a pool of players that Celtics will likely choose from. The complied lists below are from 2011, 2012, and 2013. These lists are by no mean complete. I spent a week googling information from press releases, NBA sites, college sites, and NBA message board. Needless to say, I am suffering from a bad case of Googleitice.
FYI- The best/most complete resource for the 2013 predraft list is: HoopsHype - NBA Pre-Draft Workouts
Notes:
1. Predraft workout are just a part of the Celtics draft process. The Celtics scout potential draft picks all over the world, including but is not limited to, NCAA games & coaching connections, international leagues and tournaments, high school teams, middle school teams (maybe), AAU, NBA Draft combine, independently run games & tournaments (Nike Hoop Submit & McDonald's All-American Game), etc..
2. The pre-draft workout lists contain many unrecognizable names. Unless you are an uber college basketball nerd (I am not), most of the names will not mean anything to you. Even though most of the players are not potential draft picks, I believe there's a lot of data in these lists which gives an insight into the Celtics thinking.
3. Many of these fringe players brought in for workouts are being considered for the summer league roster, NBA DLeague draft or roster, or perhaps a camp invite.
4. As a historical reference, pre-draft workout lists may give some future insight. For example, in 2010 the Celtics worked-out both Jordan Crawford and JaJuan Johnson. JJJ was drafted by the Celtics in 2011 and Crawford acquired via trade in 2013.
4. The Celtics seem to make a distinction between shooting guards (SGs), combo guards (CGs), and point guards (PGs). This distinction will be reflected in the lists by having 6 positions (PG, CG, SG, SF, PF, and C) instead of the usual 5.
5. I don't see the same distinction between power forwards (PFs) & stretch forwards (S4s) in the pre-draft lists, although Big Baby Davis, KG, and Bass are all jump shooting big men while Sullinger is a more traditional PF. I will leave this distinction out of the lists.
Let's get on with it!
2011 Pre-Draft Workout List
Name Pos Outcome
Cory Joseph PG #29 Spurs
Demontez Stitt PG undrafted
Kevin Anderson PG undrafted
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Jeremiah Rivers CG undrafted
Diante Garrett CG undrafted
Brad Wanamaker CG undrafted
Demonte Harper CG undrafted
Anthony Gurley CG undrafted
Chaisson Allen CG undrafted
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Malcolm Lee SG #43 Bulls
David Lighty SG undrafted
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Delroy James SF undrafted
Chris Wright SF undrafted
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JaJuan Johnson PF #27 Celtics
Justin Harper PF #32 Cavs
John Leuer PF #40 Bucks
Lavoy Allen PF #50 Sixers
Vernon Macklin PF #52 Pistons
Joffrey Lauvergne PF undrafted
Matt Howard PF undrafted
Jamie Skeen PF undrafted
Terrence Jennings PF undrafted
Matt O'Donnell PF undrafted
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Nikola Vucevic C #16 Sixers
Charles Okwandu C undrafted
*Lucas Nogueira C withdrew
2011 Celtics Picks
JaJuan Johnson PF - round 1 (#27 overall)
E'Twaun Moore PG/SG - round 2 (#55 overall)
Notes:
1. The Celtics worked out mostly CGs (6), and PFs(10) and they selected both in the draft.
2. During the 2010 pre-draft workouts, the Celtics brought in JaJuan Johnson for a workout.
3. E'Twaun Moore - I could find no mention of him in any pre-draft Celtics workout list or any other mention of him being interviewed or scouted.
*4. Lucas Nogueira - This is the same Lucas Nogueira who is estimated to go in the middle of this year's draft. He withdrew from 2011 draft at the last minute. He has not been interviewed by Cs this year. I am not sure if this is a good or bad sign. Perhaps they have a full book on him and didn't need to bring him in.
5. Only three players on the Celtics workout list were drafted in the first round (a PG, PF, & C) and five in the second round (1 SF and 4 PFs).
2012 Pre-Draft Workout List
Name Pos Outcome
Tyshawn Taylor PG #41 Nets
Scott Machado PG undrafted
Erving Walker PG undrafted
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Marcus Denmon CG #59 Spurs
J’Covan Brown CG undrafted
Dee Bost CG undrafted
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Terrance Ross SG #8 Raptors
John Jenkins SG #23 Hawks
Will Barton SG #40 Portland
Doron Lamb SG #42 Bucks
Charlie Westbrook SG undrafted
Darryl Partin SG undrafted
Reggie Willhite SG undrafted
Nathaniel Lester SG undrafted
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Harrison Barnes SF #7 GS
Moe Harkless SF #16 Warriors
Jeffrey Taylor SF #31 Cats
Jae Crowder SF #34 Mavs
Quincy Miller SF #38 Nuggets
Darius Miller SF #46 NO
Kris Joseph SF #51 Celtics
Rakim Sanders SF undrafted
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Andrew Nicholson PF #19 Magic
Draymond Green PF #35 GS
Mike Scott PF #43 Hawks
Kevin Jones PF undrafted
Dario Hunt PF undrafted
Kervin Bristol PF undrafted
Orion Outbridge PF undrafted
Drew Gordon PF undrafted
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Meyers Leonard C #11 Portland
Fab Melo C #22 Celtics
Festus Ezeli C #30 GS
Kyle O'Quinn C #49 Magic
Robert Sacre C #60 Lakers
2011 Celtics Picks
Jared Sullinger PF round 1 (#21 overall)
Fab Melo C - round 1 (#22 overall)
Kris Joseph SG - round 2 (#51 overall)
Notes:
1. Jared Sullinger was not brought in for an interview, but the Celtics did do a medical evaluation on his back durin the NBA Draft Combine.
2. The only two positions that the Celtics were uninterested in were PG & CG and they again drafted that way by selecting a PF, C, and SG.
3. It does seem like the Celtics were interested in moving up as they brought in or eveluated 3 top 11 picks. Plus, there were many rumors linking Harrison Barnes to the Celtics.
4. The Celtics workout out 8 first round (2 SGs, 2 SFs, a PF, and 3 Cs) picks and 13 second round pick.
2013 Pre-Draft Workout List
I used nbadraft.net and DraftExpress to determine the Average Mock Pick (AMP), rounded up.
Name Pos AMP
Shane Larkin PG #14
Dennis Schroeder PG #16
Erick Green PG #32
Pierre Jackson PG #40
Phil Pressey PG #57
Myck Kabongo PG #50
Peyton Siva PG #56
Vincent Council PG --
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Jonathan Lee CG --
Troy Daniels CG --
Dexter Strickland SG --
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG #11
Tim Hardaway Jr SG #23
Reggie Bullock SG #26
Jamaal Franklin SG #26
Glen Rice Jr SG #34
Ricky Ledo SG #35
Vander Blue SG --
Tyler Brown SG --
Ian Clark SG --
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Trevor Mbakwe PF 41
Jackie Carmichael PF 49
Nick Minnerath PF --
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Steve Adams C #11
Mason Plumlee C #18
Jeff Withey C #33
Mouhammadou Jaiteh C #48
Colton Iverson C #48
Reggie Johnson C --
Greg Echenique C --
Additional Notes:
1. Zero SFs brought in so far.
2. Giannis Adetokoubo (SF) was scouted by the Celtics in Greece.
3. Lucas Nogueira (C) was brought in for a pre-draft workout in 2011
4. The Celtics have worked out 9 project first round picks (2 PGs, 4 SGs, and 3 Cs) and 10 projected second round picks (5 PGs, a SG, 2 PF, and 2 Cs)
Conclusions & Projectsions
1. Unlike last year when the Celtics worked out 3 top 10/11 picks, there in no evidence that the Celtics are looking to move up into the top 10 this year.
2. With Jeff Green at SF, Sully at PF, and 5 CGs on the roster, the Celtics have zero interest in these positions.
The projected mid-first round picks that may be excluded from the Celtics draft pool are:
- Giannis Adetokoubo: This makes me very sad. I love the "International Man Of Mystery" type players. This is especially true for the 6'9" Adetokoubo who has PG-like skills.
- Shabazz Muhammad - Shabazz is the exact type of player that Ainge likes to draft, a top high school talent, who's draft stock falls because of explainable reasons, e.g. injuries, sub-par play in college b/c of the team's system, etc... He's on the exclude list because he is generally considered a SF, but at 6' 6" in shoes, he may be better suited at SG. If Ainge feels that he can play SG, I would not be surprised to see him drafted by the Celtics as a SG.
- Tony Mitchell - Great size at 6'9".
- Tony Snell - Like Shabazz, he's a little undersize at SF.
- Sergey Karasev - Rumored to have a promise from the Cavs at #19.
3. The Celtics may trade Fab Melo... *Gasps* I am not saying that I want the Celtics to trade Melo nor that they absolutely will trade him. However, the Celtics did work out 7 centers (8 if you include Nogueira from 2011) Three of these centers are projected as first round picks.
In addition, the Celtics traded two former first round picks in less than a season and a half after drafting them, Giddens & JaJuan Johnson. They then redrafted the same/similar position the following draft, Bradley & Sullinger. The differences are that both Giddens and JJJ were 4 year college players who were expected to make an impact on a contending team. Melo was drafted as a long-term project and the team has just started to rebuilding process.
The only conclusions that I can come to are either:
a. Fab isn't NBA level talent. I don't believe this. He had some monster games for the Red Claws before his concussion.
b. He has the talent, but is lacks something else. From all that I have read, he is smart, a hard worker, and a good all-around guy. I don't believe this one either.
c. Melo is a legit NBA center and other teams covet him. In this case, Ainge would be looking to include Melo as a center-piece in a deal for a premiere player, e.g. Millsap, Josh Smith, etc... This one has legs. There have been many reports that the Celtics owners and coach Doc Rivers don't want to go through a major rebuild. If this is so, a Melo + something + salary match for premiere player would make sense.
If the Celtics do draft a center this season, especially a project type center like Adams, I would expect a Melo trade later in the summer.
d. The Celtics see a distinction between the center position, power forward, and a stretch 4/5. The team currently has two players who fit this description, KG & Bass. The Celtics may want to balance out the skill sets of their future front court, Sullinger, Melo, & a stretch 4/5 like Zeller. However, Plumlee is the only one on the workout list who kind-of fits that description.
4. The Celtics are LIKELY to trade down on draft day, or acquire a second pick somehow (Clippers?). The Celtics don't have a second round pick this year. However, they have worked out 10 projected second round picks and a high number of mid-20s to early second players. Given the relative flatness of this draft, a move down for an second round pick does make some sense.
If the Celtics keep Melo and do trade down, it seems likely that they would select a tall SG (The Celtics have worked out 4 potential late first round picks!!!) with their first round pick, perhaps Ledo or Hardaway Jr. and a point guard from the workout list with the second rounder.
5. The Celtics are only interested in PGs, SGs, and Cs.
If the Celtics stay at #16 in the draft, below is the official 'Pre-Draft Workout List' Pattern Based Celtics Draft Pool. This pool is derived from the PGs, SGs, & Cs listed on the nbadraft.net or DraftExpress mocks between 10 and 22. (6 positions each way from the Cs pick at #16) and projected first round picks from the Cs 2013 workout list.
If the Celtics were to move up or down, the pool would change.
Name Pos AMP
Michael Carter-Williams PG #13
Shane Larkin PG #14
Dennis Schroeder PG #16
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG #11
Tim Hardaway Jr SG #23
Reggie Bullock SG #26
Jamaal Franklin SG #26
Ricky Ledo SG #35 - #30 in Draft Express
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Cody Zeller C #9 - #11 in Draft Express
Steve Adams C #11
Kelly Olynyk C #16
Mason Plumlee C #18
Lucas Nogueira C #19
Rudy Gobert C #20
Gorgui Dieng C #22
Jeff Withey C #33 - #29 in Draft Express
Are there any players that we can exclude on this list?
- Shane Larkin: At 5' 11" in shoes, Larkin is too small for an everyday starter. Currently, the Celtics have 3 drafted starters on thier rosters, Rondo, Bradley, and Sully. All three were drafted in the 20s. I just can't see the Celtics drafting an undersized career backup PG at #16.
- Ricky Ledo, Tim Hardaway Jr, Jamaal Franklin, and Jeff Withey - Unless one of these players makes a late run up the draft boards, they would all be a reach at #16.
- Cody Zeller: I can't see Zeller falling to #16.
- Steve Adams, Lucas Nogueira, and Rudy Gobert: I am basing this set of exclusions on the assumption that Fab Melo with not be traded. In this case, I can't see the Celtics drafting a second raw project center.
Updated Draft Pool:
Name Pos AMP
Michael Carter-Williams PG #13
Dennis Schroeder PG #16
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG #11
Kelly Olynyk C #16
Mason Plumlee C #18
Gorgui Dieng C #22
This is a much more focused, manageable, and hopefully accurate draft pool. I do believe it can be cut down a little further, but we are now entering the "subjective guest-imationzone".
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Pope's draft stock has risen a lot in the past few weeks. He's projected as a late lottery pick and won't be available at #16. I am not sure if his rising draft stock is for real or not, but it's pretty consistent across most mocks.
- Kelly Olynyk: I will admit that this is a bit of a reach, but Olynyk was one of the worst rated athletes at the NBA combine. Sully is also not a great athlete, so it's difficult to see the Celtics drafting a second non-athlete in the front court. Plus, he was a one season wonder in college. That's not much of a track record.
- Gorgui Dieng: He's a smaller and older version of what Fab Melo is projected to become. Even though he may be able to move into the rotation right away, there's just too much duplication of skills with Melo.
- Michael Carter-Williams: He has been consistently projected as a lottery pick all year. He's done nothing to hurt that status. Given that there are 3 lottery projected starting quality point guards and there are up to 7 teams in need of a starting point guard, I am removing him from the pool. However, MCW is a 6'5", pass-first, defensive minded, former McDonald's All-American point guard. He IS Danny's type of player. He also comes from Syracuse, which the Celtics have drafted players from in the past. If for some last minute or unknown reason, he falls to #16 then he may be the pick.
Final Draft Pool:
Name Pos AMP
Dennis Schroeder PG #16
Mason Plumlee C #18
- Dennis Schroeder: As one of the 3 starting quality PGs in the draft, like MCW, Schroeder will most likely be picked before #16.
Projected Celtics Pick at #16: Mason Plumlee
My official reaction: meh.
Mason is 7' 0.5" in shoes and 240 pounds. That's pretty good size. He has a more offensive skill-set than Melo, which would allow the team to carry both players without a duplication of skills. He's also a 4 year college player who can play right away. This would certainly help the Celtics next season as they current don't have a true center, besides for Melo, of the roster.
IMO, this pick would be completely underwhelming. I would much prefer Schroeder, Pope, or an out-of-position Shabazz. IMO, if Plumlee is the pick at #16, the Celtics would be better off dealing down into the 20s to gain a second round pick.
One positive that I can see from Plumlee on the Celtics is that we may be able to reunite him with his long lost brother, Greg Stiemsma:
In 15 days, we'll see how this pattern-based projection worked.
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July 3, 2013 UPDATE!!!
Completed 2013 Workout List
For completeness sake, the Celtics 2013 workout list has the following final additions:
PG Lamont Jones
PG Ray McCallum
CG Lamont MoMo Jones
SF Doug Anderson
SF Jamal Olasewere
PF Jake Cohen
C Lucas Nogueira
C Gorgui Dieng
C Rudy Gobert
Also, I found a great workout list thread on CelticsBlog.
How Did The Pattern Based Prediction Do?
I believe the results were pretty good. Some of my deduction were off, but that's to be expected. The end result of Mason Plumlee was super close to the player that the Celtics chose in Olynyk . Plumlee and Olynyk have very similar skill sets and are the same size. My deduction of choosing Plumlee over Olynyk was flawed. I am not sure how, but surely Danny must see something in Olynyk that I don't.
It was pretty clear by analysing the draft workout list, that the Celtics were not taking Shabazz nor Adetokoubo. With Jeff Green, 27 y/o in August, under a very reasonable contract for the next 3 seasons, the Celtics had little interest in drafting a SF. Although, with Adetokoubo's being a multi-season project and high upside, he might have been a great replacement for Jeff Green in two or three years.
The one player who the Celtics passed over that I don't understand is Dennis Schroeder. He is projected as a starting NBA PG. It may take a season or two to get there, but he has the skill set and is very young. I am guessing that Ainge projects Olynyk as a better NBA player. At least I hope so.
The other projection was that the Celtics would make a trade for a second round pick. I was predicting a trade down, not a trade up. The followup trade of $$$ for the Pacers second rounder (Colton Iverson) was expected. What wasn't expected was the Celtics picking another 7 footer. At #53, there were a few highly rated PGs & SGs left of the board. The workout lists clearly shows the Celtics were very interested in PGs and tall SGs. Post draft, the Celtics did address their PG interest by signing undrafted CG Lamont MoMo Jones and PG Phil Pressey.
Needless to say, I can't wait for summer league to start!
I will leave you with some words from Danny Ainge:
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For more Celtics related reading:
For The Boston Celtics, Winter Is Coming
It's Over Because It's Over
For more draft related reading:
The 2013 NBA Draft Is A Mess And You Can Blame Marcus Smart
Deconstructing The 2012 NBA Rookie Class (The Top 57 Rookies)
2013 NBA Draft Preview - Who's Stock Is Up? Who's Stock Is Down?
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