You Have To Know Who You Are, If You Don't You Have Nightmares - Danny Ainge's Own Personal Tipping Point

I wasn't going to write anything about Doc Rivers & the Clippers. It's been beaten to death. However, after finishing off my third cup off coffee this morning, I realized that one major angle has been missing from all of the Doc/Clippers news reports. This angle has to do with Danny Ainge's long infatuation with Chris Paul.

We'll get to that in a minute, but for completeness sake, let's start with Doc. Personally, I don't care much about NBA coaches. Hiring a NBA coach is more about not picking the wrong one than picking the right one. The NBA is a player's league and the best coaches manage personalities and egos. The worst NBA coaches are uber control freaks who manage their teams and games like they were in college, e.g. Scott Skiles, Rick Pitino, PJ Carlesimo, etc. If the Celtics lose Doc Rivers, it's not a big deal. I have faith that Ainge will hiring a good-enough new coach.

I can 100% understand Doc not wanting to coach the Celtics during a major rebuild. Rivers is 51 years old and has coached for 14 NBA seasons. IMO, he's a lot like KG & Pierce. He has a couple of good years left in the tank, but the end is on the horizon.

In all likelihood, it will take the Celtics 3-6 years to get back to title contention. I expect that Rivers wants to be finished coaching by that time. There always has been rumors about him stepping down to spend more time with his family. Plus, given the choice between coaching elite NBA veterans who are contending for a title vs. coaching a bunch of 18-24 year old kids who may only win 20-30 games a year, the choice is pretty clear. For this reason, I believe Ainge, Rivers, and the owners are waiting until after the draft to make a decision. If Danny can pull a rabbit out of his hat and transition the Celtics into a pseudo-contender then Doc will stay. In the more likely case, Danny will go into full-rebuild mod and Doc will step down.

Side note: By "pseudo-contender", I mean that Danny transitions Pierce, KG, or both into one or two B+ to A- player(s), e.g. In a three-way deal, flipping Pierce for some combo of picks, prospects, and expiring contracts. Those assets are then sent to a third team, e.g. Utah, for a B+ player, e.g. Millsap or Big Al. This type of deal or deals would put the Celtics back into pseudo-contention. The Celtics would be pretty good and a top 4 or 5 playoff seed, but would lack the super elite player that it typically takes to win a title. For example, compare the starting 5 of the 2007/08 Champion Boston Celtics against a best-case-scenario starting 5 mock-up of the pseudo-contending 2013/14 Celtics.

2007 Celtics                   2013 Celtics
PG Rajon Rondo                 Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen                   Avery Bradley
SF Paul Pierce                 Jeff Green
PF Kevin Garnett               Paul Millsap
C  Kendrick Perkins            Omer Asik*


* I can dream!

It's a no-contest. The 2007/08 team wins hands down. A pseudo-contending Celtics would be closer to the 2007 Atlanta Hawks than the 2007 Boston Celtics.

Back on topic.

So how does Chris Paul fit into this?

Since the 2005 NBA Draft, Ainge has been trying to trade for Chris Paul. Call it a man-crush. Call it great talent evaluation. Call it whatever you want, but over the past 8 seasons, there have been strong rumors that Ainge has offered Pierce (pre-Rondo) and Rondo, in different packages, for Chris Paul. Now his dream of having a Chris Paul, Paul Pierce, and KG lineup coach by Doc Rivers may become reality... in LA... for the Clippers. This is the rub.

I don't know Ainge personally, but I expect that this would be very difficult for him. It would be for me. I don't believe Ainge would scuttle a deal where Doc, and or Pierce, and or KG end up in LA, where the Celtics make out well. However, I expect that Ainge will make the Clipper PAY for either player and/or Doc. It's unlikely that Pierce, KG, and Doc all end up in LA, but I would not be surprised if Doc and perhaps either Pierce or KG do.

Since I like to compare lineups, let's take a look at the 2011/12 ECF Boston Celtics, had New Orleans flipped Chris Paul to Boston for Rondo, against the potential Boston-esque 2013/14 LA Clippers.

2011 Celtics                   2013 Clippers
PG Chris Paul                  Chris Paul
SG Ray Allen                   Jamal Crawford
SF Paul Pierce                 Paul Pierce
PF Brandon Bass                Blake Griffin
C  Kevin Garnett               Kevin Garnett
Coach: Doc Rivers              Doc Rivers

Looking at this makes me a little queasy. However, if the Celtics go into full-rebuild mod (likely) then I would not mind routing for Pierce, KG, and Doc on the LA pseudo-Celtics.



For more Celtics related reading:
What We Call Chaos Is Just Patterns We Haven't Recognized - 2013 Celtics Draft Preview For The Boston Celtics, Winter Is Coming
It's Over Because It's Over 

For some draft related reading:
The 2013 NBA Draft Is A Mess And You Can Blame Marcus Smart 
Deconstructing The 2012 NBA Rookie Class (The Top 57 Rookies)
2013 NBA Draft Preview - Who's Stock Is Up? Who's Stock Is Down?